DraftKings · Fanatics
Method of victory, over/under rounds, goes the distance, inside the distance, and round of finish — the markets those books actually hang. CORNER probability is independent of the line. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. A flag is a disagreement, not a ticket.
UFC Apex · Bantamweight · 3×5
Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rosas Jr. KO/TKO
-13.2% vs DK
Model
2.7%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+416(19.4%)
Fanatics
+415(19.4%)
Rosas Jr. submission
-5.8% vs DK
Model
20.8%
Fair
+380
DraftKings
+208(32.5%)
Fanatics
+207(32.6%)
Rosas Jr. decision
+10.9% vs DK
Model
31.5%
Fair
+218
DraftKings
+299(25.1%)
Fanatics
+298(25.1%)
Barcelos KO/TKO
-9.7% vs DK
Model
3.6%
Fair
+2701
DraftKings
+518(16.2%)
Fanatics
+521(16.1%)
Barcelos submission
Model
7.3%
Fair
+1270
DraftKings
+863(10.4%)
Fanatics
+868(10.3%)
Barcelos decision
+18.9% vs DK
Model
34.1%
Fair
+193
DraftKings
+439(18.6%)
Fanatics
+441(18.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.1% vs DK
Model
80.9%
Fair
-424
DraftKings
-213(68.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.1% vs DK
Model
19.1%
Fair
+424
DraftKings
+171(36.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+24.9% vs DK
Model
70.5%
Fair
-239
DraftKings
+108(48.1%)
Fanatics
+108(48.1%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-24.9% vs DK
Model
29.5%
Fair
+239
DraftKings
-135(57.4%)
Fanatics
-135(57.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+28.8% vs DK
Model
65.6%
Fair
-191
DraftKings
+157(38.9%)
Fanatics
+157(38.9%)
Does not go the distance
-28.8% vs DK
Model
34.4%
Fair
+191
DraftKings
-203(67.0%)
Fanatics
-203(67.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rosas Jr. inside the distance
-19.0% vs DK
Model
23.5%
Fair
+325
DraftKings
+121(45.2%)
Fanatics
+120(45.5%)
Rosas Jr. not inside the distance
+19.0% vs DK
Model
76.5%
Fair
-325
DraftKings
-158(61.2%)
Fanatics
-157(61.1%)
Barcelos inside the distance
-10.9% vs DK
Model
10.9%
Fair
+820
DraftKings
+331(23.2%)
Fanatics
+333(23.1%)
Barcelos not inside the distance
+10.9% vs DK
Model
89.1%
Fair
-820
DraftKings
-499(83.3%)
Fanatics
-503(83.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-5.8% vs DK
Model
19.1%
Fair
+424
DraftKings
+231(30.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-11.6% vs DK
Model
10.4%
Fair
+862
DraftKings
+276(26.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-16.0% vs DK
Model
4.9%
Fair
+1933
DraftKings
+294(25.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Apex · Featherweight · 3×5
Vallejos vs DouglasDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Vallejos KO/TKO
-20.9% vs DK
Model
11.1%
Fair
+798
DraftKings
+156(39.1%)
Fanatics
+156(39.1%)
Vallejos submission
-4.1% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2183
DraftKings
+872(10.3%)
Fanatics
+871(10.3%)
Vallejos decision
+20.2% vs DK
Model
38.6%
Fair
+159
DraftKings
+345(22.5%)
Fanatics
+344(22.5%)
Douglas KO/TKO
-10.7% vs DK
Model
7.7%
Fair
+1202
DraftKings
+346(22.4%)
Fanatics
+347(22.4%)
Douglas submission
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1615
DraftKings
+942(9.6%)
Fanatics
+944(9.6%)
Douglas decision
+17.5% vs DK
Model
32.4%
Fair
+209
DraftKings
+450(18.2%)
Fanatics
+451(18.1%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+17.4% vs DK
Model
83.9%
Fair
-521
DraftKings
-232(69.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-17.4% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+184(35.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+30.2% vs DK
Model
75.1%
Fair
-302
DraftKings
+111(47.4%)
Fanatics
+111(47.4%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-30.2% vs DK
Model
24.9%
Fair
+302
DraftKings
-139(58.2%)
Fanatics
-139(58.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+36.7% vs DK
Model
71.0%
Fair
-245
DraftKings
+175(36.4%)
Fanatics
+175(36.4%)
Does not go the distance
-36.7% vs DK
Model
29.0%
Fair
+245
DraftKings
-229(69.6%)
Fanatics
-229(69.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Vallejos inside the distance
-24.9% vs DK
Model
15.5%
Fair
+545
DraftKings
+132(43.1%)
Fanatics
+132(43.1%)
Vallejos not inside the distance
+24.9% vs DK
Model
84.5%
Fair
-545
DraftKings
-174(63.5%)
Fanatics
-173(63.4%)
Douglas inside the distance
-12.7% vs DK
Model
13.5%
Fair
+640
DraftKings
+258(27.9%)
Fanatics
+258(27.9%)
Douglas not inside the distance
+12.7% vs DK
Model
86.5%
Fair
-640
DraftKings
-366(78.5%)
Fanatics
-367(78.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.3% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+266(27.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-14.8% vs DK
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1036
DraftKings
+248(28.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-20.0% vs DK
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2327
DraftKings
+241(29.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted