DraftKings · Fanatics
Method of victory, over/under rounds, goes the distance, inside the distance, and round of finish — the markets those books actually hang. CORNER probability is independent of the line. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. A flag is a disagreement, not a ticket.
UFC 331 · Flyweight · Title · 5×5
Van vs PantojaDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Van KO/TKO
-13.9% vs DK
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2117
DraftKings
+345(22.5%)
Fanatics
+345(22.5%)
Van submission
-3.1% vs DK
Model
3.2%
Fair
+3035
DraftKings
+1212(7.6%)
Fanatics
+1211(7.6%)
Van decision
+13.6% vs DK
Model
44.5%
Fair
+125
DraftKings
+165(37.7%)
Fanatics
+164(37.9%)
Pantoja KO/TKO
-9.0% vs DK
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2471
DraftKings
+537(15.7%)
Fanatics
+538(15.7%)
Pantoja submission
-3.7% vs DK
Model
11.8%
Fair
+750
DraftKings
+431(18.8%)
Fanatics
+431(18.8%)
Pantoja decision
+16.0% vs DK
Model
32.1%
Fair
+212
DraftKings
+410(19.6%)
Fanatics
+411(19.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+9.1% vs DK
Model
91.6%
Fair
-1090
DraftKings
-647(86.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-9.1% vs DK
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1090
DraftKings
+444(18.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+14.1% vs DK
Model
87.0%
Fair
-669
DraftKings
-334(77.0%)
Fanatics
-334(77.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-14.1% vs DK
Model
13.0%
Fair
+669
DraftKings
+250(28.6%)
Fanatics
+250(28.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+20.2% vs DK
Model
82.7%
Fair
-478
DraftKings
-194(66.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-20.2% vs DK
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+26.4% vs DK
Model
78.6%
Fair
-367
DraftKings
-124(55.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-26.4% vs DK
Model
21.4%
Fair
+367
DraftKings
-103(50.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+28.6% vs DK
Model
76.6%
Fair
-328
DraftKings
-104(51.0%)
Fanatics
-104(51.0%)
Does not go the distance
-28.6% vs DK
Model
23.4%
Fair
+328
DraftKings
-123(55.2%)
Fanatics
-123(55.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Van inside the distance
-16.9% vs DK
Model
7.7%
Fair
+1199
DraftKings
+281(26.2%)
Fanatics
+281(26.2%)
Van not inside the distance
+16.9% vs DK
Model
92.3%
Fair
-1199
DraftKings
-406(80.2%)
Fanatics
-406(80.2%)
Pantoja inside the distance
-12.6% vs DK
Model
15.7%
Fair
+539
DraftKings
+232(30.1%)
Fanatics
+232(30.1%)
Pantoja not inside the distance
+12.6% vs DK
Model
84.3%
Fair
-539
DraftKings
-323(76.4%)
Fanatics
-323(76.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-3.6% vs DK
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1092
DraftKings
+601(14.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-6.9% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2077
DraftKings
+633(13.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-7.0% vs DK
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2229
DraftKings
+645(13.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-7.1% vs DK
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2342
DraftKings
+653(13.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-9.1% vs DK
Model
2.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+659(13.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC 331 · Featherweight · 5×5
Evloev vs LopesDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Evloev KO/TKO
-9.3% vs DK
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2413
DraftKings
+519(16.2%)
Fanatics
+517(16.2%)
Evloev submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2287
DraftKings
+1298(7.2%)
Fanatics
+1294(7.2%)
Evloev decision
+9.2% vs DK
Model
52.3%
Fair
-110
DraftKings
-111(52.6%)
Fanatics
-112(52.8%)
Lopes KO/TKO
-11.1% vs DK
Model
3.4%
Fair
+2824
DraftKings
+465(17.7%)
Fanatics
+468(17.6%)
Lopes submission
Model
10.8%
Fair
+828
DraftKings
+539(15.6%)
Fanatics
+542(15.6%)
Lopes decision
+14.9% vs DK
Model
25.3%
Fair
+296
DraftKings
+687(12.7%)
Fanatics
+691(12.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+7.4% vs DK
Model
92.0%
Fair
-1150
DraftKings
-792(88.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-7.4% vs DK
Model
8.0%
Fair
+1150
DraftKings
+517(16.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+11.3% vs DK
Model
87.6%
Fair
-706
DraftKings
-413(80.5%)
Fanatics
-414(80.5%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-11.3% vs DK
Model
12.4%
Fair
+706
DraftKings
+300(25.0%)
Fanatics
+301(24.9%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+16.4% vs DK
Model
83.5%
Fair
-506
DraftKings
-243(70.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-16.4% vs DK
Model
16.5%
Fair
+506
DraftKings
+188(34.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+21.4% vs DK
Model
79.5%
Fair
-388
DraftKings
-160(61.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-21.4% vs DK
Model
20.5%
Fair
+388
DraftKings
+125(44.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+23.0% vs DK
Model
77.6%
Fair
-347
DraftKings
-137(57.8%)
Fanatics
-137(57.8%)
Does not go the distance
-23.0% vs DK
Model
22.4%
Fair
+347
DraftKings
+108(48.1%)
Fanatics
+108(48.1%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Evloev inside the distance
-11.0% vs DK
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1124
DraftKings
+391(20.4%)
Fanatics
+390(20.4%)
Evloev not inside the distance
+11.0% vs DK
Model
91.8%
Fair
-1124
DraftKings
-622(86.1%)
Fanatics
-619(86.1%)
Lopes inside the distance
-13.2% vs DK
Model
14.2%
Fair
+604
DraftKings
+243(29.2%)
Fanatics
+245(29.0%)
Lopes not inside the distance
+13.2% vs DK
Model
85.8%
Fair
-604
DraftKings
-342(77.4%)
Fanatics
-345(77.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
8.0%
Fair
+1157
DraftKings
+702(12.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-5.8% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2186
DraftKings
+736(12.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-6.0% vs DK
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2353
DraftKings
+749(11.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-6.0% vs DK
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2415
DraftKings
+757(11.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-7.9% vs DK
Model
2.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+763(11.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted