DraftKings · Fanatics
Method of victory, over/under rounds, goes the distance, inside the distance, and round of finish — the markets those books actually hang. CORNER probability is independent of the line. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. A flag is a disagreement, not a ticket.
ONE Samurai 3 · Flyweight · 3×5
Wakamatsu vs TakenakaDraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Wakamatsu KO/TKO
-16.6% vs DK
Model
6.4%
Fair
+1465
DraftKings
+256(28.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Wakamatsu submission
-4.6% vs DK
Model
6.8%
Fair
+1377
DraftKings
+622(13.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Wakamatsu decision
+13.0% vs DK
Model
32.9%
Fair
+204
DraftKings
+312(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka KO/TKO
-8.4% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1904
DraftKings
+511(16.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka submission
Model
13.5%
Fair
+640
DraftKings
+410(19.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka decision
+19.2% vs DK
Model
35.5%
Fair
+182
DraftKings
+405(19.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+26.5% vs DK
Model
72.9%
Fair
-269
DraftKings
+104(49.0%)
Fanatics
+103(49.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-26.5% vs DK
Model
27.1%
Fair
+269
DraftKings
-130(56.5%)
Fanatics
-132(56.9%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+31.2% vs DK
Model
68.3%
Fair
-216
DraftKings
+154(39.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-31.2% vs DK
Model
31.7%
Fair
+216
DraftKings
-200(66.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Wakamatsu inside the distance
-21.2% vs DK
Model
13.2%
Fair
+660
DraftKings
+173(36.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Wakamatsu not inside the distance
+21.2% vs DK
Model
86.8%
Fair
-660
DraftKings
-232(69.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka inside the distance
-11.0% vs DK
Model
18.5%
Fair
+440
DraftKings
+218(31.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka not inside the distance
+11.0% vs DK
Model
81.5%
Fair
-440
DraftKings
-301(75.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
ONE Samurai 3 · Strawweight · 3×5
Minowa vs SarutaDraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Minowa KO/TKO
-11.7% vs DK
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1819
DraftKings
+384(20.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Minowa submission
-5.4% vs DK
Model
12.6%
Fair
+692
DraftKings
+354(22.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Minowa decision
+17.4% vs DK
Model
41.3%
Fair
+142
DraftKings
+243(29.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta KO/TKO
-8.0% vs DK
Model
3.8%
Fair
+2553
DraftKings
+593(14.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta submission
-4.0% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1345
DraftKings
+649(13.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta decision
+11.8% vs DK
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
+345(22.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+24.3% vs DK
Model
75.6%
Fair
-310
DraftKings
-118(54.1%)
Fanatics
-119(54.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-24.3% vs DK
Model
24.4%
Fair
+310
DraftKings
-106(51.5%)
Fanatics
-107(51.7%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+28.2% vs DK
Model
71.5%
Fair
-251
DraftKings
+118(45.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-28.2% vs DK
Model
28.5%
Fair
+251
DraftKings
-151(60.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Minowa inside the distance
-17.1% vs DK
Model
17.8%
Fair
+461
DraftKings
+169(37.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Minowa not inside the distance
+17.1% vs DK
Model
82.2%
Fair
-461
DraftKings
-225(69.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta inside the distance
-12.1% vs DK
Model
10.7%
Fair
+835
DraftKings
+312(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta not inside the distance
+12.1% vs DK
Model
89.3%
Fair
-835
DraftKings
-464(82.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted