Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 68%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Reeder: 16%–54%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 23%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 68% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Zach Reeder live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Zach Reeder (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 68% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Reeder striking rating 1428 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Reeder lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 1.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 61%. Reach is 72" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Reeder's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Reeder enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Reeder's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Reeder — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Reeder enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Reeder's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.70
Reeder striking rating 1428 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Reeder has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowReeder +0.10
Reeder 30 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formReeder +0.04
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Reeder +0.22 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Reeder · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Reeder: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Reeder | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 34 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.50 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 60% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.04 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 56d | 126d |
| Data | thin | deep |
Reeder range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Reeder KO/TKO
Model
4.8%
Fair
+2001
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder submission
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2204
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder decision
Model
23.1%
Fair
+333
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
15.4%
Fair
+548
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.6%
Fair
+1673
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
46.7%
Fair
+114
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 20% · submission 10% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Reeder 43% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.3%
Fair
-499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
74.1%
Fair
-286
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
25.9%
Fair
+286
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.8%
Fair
-231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Reeder 23% + Rodrigues 47%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Reeder inside the distance
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder not inside the distance
Model
90.9%
Fair
-999
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
21.1%
Fair
+374
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
78.9%
Fair
-374
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 5% + SUB 4%
- Reeder 0.50 KD / 15 · 43% of wins by KO/TKO
- Reeder 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 21% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.2%
Fair
+987
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.