Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 70%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Saruta: 15%–51%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 25%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 70% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Yosuke Saruta live if the fight is forced into scrambler.
Yosuke Saruta (scrambler, point fighter) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC strawweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 70% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Saruta striking rating 1395 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 25%. Saruta lands 3.5 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 2.0 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 61%. Reach is 65" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Saruta's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Saruta's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Saruta enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Saruta's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Saruta — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Saruta's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Saruta enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Saruta's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.77
Saruta striking rating 1395 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
- Age / athletic windowRodrigues −0.07
Saruta 37 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formSaruta +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Saruta +0.25 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Grappling / controlSaruta +0.04
Takedown threat Saruta 0.98 vs Rodrigues 0.77 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.
Attribute radar
Saruta · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Saruta: scrambler · point fighter — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Saruta | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-12-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 37 | 34 |
| Height | 5'4" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 65" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 62% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 66% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.2m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.12 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 91d | 126d |
| Data | thin | deep |
Saruta range mix
- Distance80%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Saruta KO/TKO
Model
2.9%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta submission
Model
4.9%
Fair
+1945
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta decision
Model
22.4%
Fair
+346
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
14.8%
Fair
+576
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.9%
Fair
+1592
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
49.1%
Fair
+104
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 18% · submission 11% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Saruta 25% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.2%
Fair
-533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.6%
Fair
-310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.4%
Fair
+310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
71.5%
Fair
-251
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
28.5%
Fair
+251
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Saruta 22% + Rodrigues 49%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Saruta inside the distance
Model
7.8%
Fair
+1184
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta not inside the distance
Model
92.2%
Fair
-1184
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
20.7%
Fair
+383
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
79.3%
Fair
-383
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 3% + SUB 5%
- Saruta 0.25 KD / 15 · 25% of wins by KO/TKO
- Saruta 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 30% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.6%
Fair
+1063
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2333
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.