CORNER

Compare

Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Rodrigues 54%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Rodriguez 46%Rodrigues 54%

90% interval on Rodriguez: 33%–60%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 70%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
74%
Grappling share
21%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 54% because of power vs durability, with Yair Rodriguez live if the fight is forced into southpaw kicker.

Yair Rodriguez (southpaw kicker, distance kicker, opportunistic, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 54% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is power vs durability: Rodriguez has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 21%. Rodriguez lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 0.9 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 62% versus 61%. Reach is 71" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Rodriguez's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Rodriguez's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodriguez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Rodriguez — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Rodriguez's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Rodriguez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
  • Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

Swing variables

  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11

    Rodriguez has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.08

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Rodriguez -0.34 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Counter striker vs pressure boxingRodriguez +0.05

    Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.05

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodriguez +0.05

    Rodriguez striking rating 1760 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (79%).

  • Age / athletic windowRodriguez +0.03

    Rodriguez 33 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.02

    Takedown threat Rodriguez 0.44 vs Rodrigues 0.79 per 15. Estimated grappling share 21%.

  • Layoff / rust vs freshnessRodrigues −0.02

    Rodriguez 168 days out · Rodrigues 126 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.

Attribute radar

Rodriguez · Rodrigues

Side-by-side

Rodriguez: southpaw kicker · distance kicker · opportunistic · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

RodriguezRodrigues
Record19-5 (1 NC)16-6
Age (fight night)3334
Height5'11"6'2"
Reach71"75"
StanceSouthpawOrthodox
SLpM4.55.2
SApM3.64.1
Str. acc.44%51%
Str. def.53%49%
KD / 150.520.92
TD avg0.91.6
TD acc.35%38%
TD def.62%61%
Sub avg0.40.3
Control / 151.0m1.8m
Late-round diff-0.06-0.08
Layoff168d126d
Datadeepdeep

Rodriguez range mix

  • Distance
    80%
  • Clinch
    10%
  • Ground
    10%
  • Head
    48%
  • Body
    20%
  • Leg
    32%

Rodrigues range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    12%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    64%
  • Body
    20%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Rodriguez KO/TKO

Model

7.0%

Fair

+1327

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodriguez submission

Model

5.1%

Fair

+1846

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodriguez decision

Model

33.7%

Fair

+197

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues KO/TKO

Model

13.6%

Fair

+635

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues submission

Model

4.3%

Fair

+2204

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues decision

Model

36.2%

Fair

+176

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Model split: KO/TKO 21% · submission 9% · decision 70%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Rodriguez 42% · Rodrigues 69%
  • Standing share 79%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

Model

83.3%

Fair

-499

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

Model

16.7%

Fair

+499

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
  • Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 2.5 rounds

Model

74.2%

Fair

-288

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 2.5 rounds

Model

25.8%

Fair

+288

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
  • Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)

Fight goes the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Goes the distance

Model

69.9%

Fair

-232

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Does not go the distance

Model

30.1%

Fair

+232

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Decision mass Rodriguez 34% + Rodrigues 36%
  • Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min

Inside the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Rodriguez inside the distance

Model

12.2%

Fair

+723

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodriguez not inside the distance

Model

87.9%

Fair

-723

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues inside the distance

Model

17.9%

Fair

+457

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues not inside the distance

Model

82.0%

Fair

-457

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • KO 7% + SUB 5%
  • Rodriguez 0.52 KD / 15 · 42% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Rodriguez 0.4 sub attempts / 15 · 21% of wins by submission

Round of finish

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

Model

16.7%

Fair

+499

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

Model

9.1%

Fair

+999

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

Model

4.3%

Fair

+2231

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
How the model works