Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidencePetrino 52%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Petrino: 36%–68%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- Grappling share
- 24%
Briefing
Vitor Petrino is the model’s side at 52% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Vitor Petrino (power puncher, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Petrino around 52% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Petrino striking rating 1685 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Petrino lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy with a 1.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 61%. Reach is 77" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Petrino's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Petrino enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Petrino — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Petrino enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.12
Petrino striking rating 1685 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formPetrino +0.10
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Petrino +0.50 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowPetrino +0.10
Petrino 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityPetrino +0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.02
Takedown threat Petrino 0.91 vs Rodrigues 0.77 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.
Attribute radar
Petrino · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Petrino: power puncher · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Petrino | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-2 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 53% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 51% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 40% | 38% |
| TD def. | 66% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 1.9m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.04 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 112d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Petrino range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Petrino KO/TKO
Model
11.9%
Fair
+741
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Petrino submission
Model
3.2%
Fair
+3025
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Petrino decision
Model
37.0%
Fair
+170
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.8%
Fair
+921
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2381
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
34.1%
Fair
+193
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 22% · submission 7% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Petrino 77% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.0%
Fair
-525
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.0%
Fair
+525
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.3%
Fair
-305
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.7%
Fair
+305
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 75%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
71.1%
Fair
-246
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
28.9%
Fair
+246
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Petrino 37% + Rodrigues 34%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Petrino inside the distance
Model
15.1%
Fair
+563
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Petrino not inside the distance
Model
84.9%
Fair
-563
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
13.8%
Fair
+624
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
86.2%
Fair
-624
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 12% + SUB 3%
- Petrino 0.78 KD / 15 · 77% of wins by KO/TKO
- Petrino 0.2 sub attempts / 15 · 8% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.0%
Fair
+525
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.7%
Fair
+1049
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2281
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.