Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 53%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Le: 30%–66%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 53% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Thanh Le live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Thanh Le (power puncher, muay thai, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Le -0.39 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Le lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 72" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Le's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Le's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Le enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Le — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Le's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Rodrigues's entries slow.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Le enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.09
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Le -0.39 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingLe +0.07
Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.05
Takedown threat Le 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.82 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Age / athletic windowRodrigues −0.03
Le 35 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Le · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Le: power puncher · muay thai · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Le | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-4 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 35 | 34 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 58% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 119d | 126d |
| Data | standard | deep |
Le range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg30%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Le KO/TKO
Model
11.3%
Fair
+783
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Le submission
Model
3.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Le decision
Model
33.2%
Fair
+202
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
12.3%
Fair
+712
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
36.0%
Fair
+177
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 24% · submission 7% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Le 73% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.9%
Fair
-485
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.1%
Fair
+485
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.6%
Fair
-279
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.4%
Fair
+279
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.2%
Fair
-225
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.8%
Fair
+225
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Le 33% + Rodrigues 36%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Le inside the distance
Model
14.3%
Fair
+598
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Le not inside the distance
Model
85.7%
Fair
-598
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
16.5%
Fair
+507
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
83.5%
Fair
-507
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 11% + SUB 3%
- Le 0.85 KD / 15 · 73% of wins by KO/TKO
- Le 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 7% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.1%
Fair
+485
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.3%
Fair
+975
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2173
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.