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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

low confidence

Rodrigues 53%

Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.

Le 47%Rodrigues 53%

90% interval on Le: 30%–66%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 69%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
74%
Grappling share
20%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 53% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Thanh Le live if the fight is forced into power puncher.

Thanh Le (power puncher, muay thai, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Le -0.39 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Le lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 72" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Le's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Le's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Le enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Le — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Le's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
  2. One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  3. Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Rodrigues's entries slow.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Le enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
  • Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

Swing variables

    What moved it from 50/50

    • Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.09

      Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Le -0.39 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

    • Counter striker vs pressure boxingLe +0.07

      Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.

    • Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.05

      Takedown threat Le 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.82 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.

    • Age / athletic windowRodrigues −0.03

      Le 35 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

    Attribute radar

    Le · Rodrigues

    Side-by-side

    Le: power puncher · muay thai · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

    LeRodrigues
    Record15-416-6
    Age (fight night)3534
    Height5'10"6'2"
    Reach72"75"
    StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
    SLpM4.25.2
    SApM3.44.1
    Str. acc.47%51%
    Str. def.56%49%
    KD / 150.850.92
    TD avg0.61.6
    TD acc.36%38%
    TD def.58%61%
    Sub avg0.30.3
    Control / 152.0m1.8m
    Late-round diff-0.08-0.08
    Layoff119d126d
    Datastandarddeep

    Le range mix

    • Distance
      76%
    • Clinch
      28%
    • Ground
      6%
    • Head
      68%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      30%

    Rodrigues range mix

    • Distance
      72%
    • Clinch
      12%
    • Ground
      16%
    • Head
      64%
    • Body
      20%
    • Leg
      16%

    Method of victory

    • Le KO/TKO
      11%
    • Le SUB
      3%
    • Le DEC
      33%
    • Rodrigues KO/TKO
      12%
    • Rodrigues SUB
      4%
    • Rodrigues DEC
      36%
    How the model works