Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 73%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Chatman: 14%–46%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:42
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- Grappling share
- 23%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 73% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Terrance Chatman live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Terrance Chatman (power puncher, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 73% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Chatman striking rating 1415 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Chatman lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 1.5 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 61%. Reach is 76" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Chatman's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Chatman enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Chatman — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Chatman enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.74
Chatman striking rating 1415 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Chatman has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Chatman -0.30 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessRodrigues −0.02
Chatman 154 days out · Rodrigues 126 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityChatman +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Chatman · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Chatman: power puncher · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Chatman | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 76" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 60% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 154d | 126d |
| Data | standard | deep |
Chatman range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Chatman KO/TKO
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1621
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Chatman submission
Model
3.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Chatman decision
Model
18.6%
Fair
+436
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
16.6%
Fair
+502
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
6.0%
Fair
+1564
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
50.0%
Fair
+100
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 22% · submission 9% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Chatman 75% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.6%
Fair
-475
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.4%
Fair
+475
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.1%
Fair
-272
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.9%
Fair
+272
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
68.6%
Fair
-218
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
31.4%
Fair
+218
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Chatman 19% + Rodrigues 50%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.7 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Chatman inside the distance
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1038
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Chatman not inside the distance
Model
91.2%
Fair
-1038
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
22.6%
Fair
+342
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
77.4%
Fair
-342
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 3%
- Chatman 0.55 KD / 15 · 75% of wins by KO/TKO
- Chatman 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 13% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.4%
Fair
+475
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.5%
Fair
+953
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2122
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.