Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceKai 60%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Kai: 43%–75%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 75%
- Expected time
- 13:12
- P(over 2.5)
- 78%
- Grappling share
- 19%
Briefing
Tang Kai is the model’s side at 60% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Tang Kai (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer, point fighter) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Kai around 60% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Kai striking rating 1800 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Kai lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 0.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 61%. Reach is 73" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Kai's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Kai's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Kai enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Kai — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Kai's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Kai enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Kai +0.14
Kai striking rating 1800 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formKai +0.14
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Kai +0.63 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowKai +0.10
Kai 30 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Kai · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Kai: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · point fighter — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Kai | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 34 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 60% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 70% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 119d | 126d |
| Data | standard | deep |
Kai range mix
- Distance78%
- Clinch14%
- Ground8%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg24%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Kai KO/TKO
Model
12.0%
Fair
+734
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Kai submission
Model
2.6%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Kai decision
Model
45.2%
Fair
+121
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
7.4%
Fair
+1244
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.1%
Fair
+3105
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
29.6%
Fair
+238
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 19% · submission 6% · decision 75%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Kai 63% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
86.0%
Fair
-614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
14.0%
Fair
+614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 86%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
78.4%
Fair
-363
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
21.6%
Fair
+363
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 78%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
74.8%
Fair
-297
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
25.2%
Fair
+297
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Kai 45% + Rodrigues 30%
- Finish mass 25% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.2 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Kai inside the distance
Model
14.6%
Fair
+584
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Kai not inside the distance
Model
85.4%
Fair
-584
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
10.6%
Fair
+847
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
89.4%
Fair
-847
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 12% + SUB 3%
- Kai 0.55 KD / 15 · 63% of wins by KO/TKO
- Kai 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
14.0%
Fair
+614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.6%
Fair
+1216
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.6%
Fair
+2686
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 25% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.