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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

low confidence

Rodrigues 69%

Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.

Dorsainvil 31%Rodrigues 69%

90% interval on Dorsainvil: 14%–55%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 70%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
74%
Grappling share
20%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 69% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Stanley Dorsainvil live if the fight is forced into power puncher.

Stanley Dorsainvil (power puncher, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 69% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Dorsainvil striking rating 1458 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Dorsainvil lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 55% versus 61%. Reach is 73" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Dorsainvil's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Dorsainvil enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Dorsainvil — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Dorsainvil enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Swing variables

    What moved it from 50/50

    • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.66

      Dorsainvil striking rating 1458 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

    • Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11

      Dorsainvil has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.

    • Age / athletic windowDorsainvil +0.10

      Dorsainvil 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

    • Layoff / rust vs freshnessRodrigues −0.06

      Dorsainvil 42 days out · Rodrigues 126 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.

    • Recency and opponent-adjusted formDorsainvil +0.06

      Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Dorsainvil +0.28 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

    • Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.05

      Takedown threat Dorsainvil 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.83 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.

    • Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.02

      Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

    Attribute radar

    Dorsainvil · Rodrigues

    Side-by-side

    Dorsainvil: power puncher · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

    DorsainvilRodrigues
    Record7-116-6
    Age (fight night)2934
    Height5'11"6'2"
    Reach73"75"
    StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
    SLpM4.65.2
    SApM3.54.1
    Str. acc.48%51%
    Str. def.52%49%
    KD / 150.700.92
    TD avg0.61.6
    TD acc.36%38%
    TD def.55%61%
    Sub avg0.30.3
    Control / 152.0m1.8m
    Late-round diff0.00-0.08
    Layoff42d126d
    Datathindeep

    Dorsainvil range mix

    • Distance
      72%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      14%
    • Head
      65%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      13%

    Rodrigues range mix

    • Distance
      72%
    • Clinch
      12%
    • Ground
      16%
    • Head
      64%
    • Body
      20%
    • Leg
      16%

    Method of victory

    • Dorsainvil KO/TKO
      7%
    • Dorsainvil SUB
      1%
    • Dorsainvil DEC
      23%
    • Rodrigues KO/TKO
      16%
    • Rodrigues SUB
      5%
    • Rodrigues DEC
      47%
    How the model works