Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 69%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Dorsainvil: 14%–55%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 69% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Stanley Dorsainvil live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Stanley Dorsainvil (power puncher, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 69% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Dorsainvil striking rating 1458 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Dorsainvil lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 55% versus 61%. Reach is 73" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Dorsainvil's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Dorsainvil enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Dorsainvil — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Dorsainvil enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.66
Dorsainvil striking rating 1458 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Dorsainvil has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowDorsainvil +0.10
Dorsainvil 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessRodrigues −0.06
Dorsainvil 42 days out · Rodrigues 126 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formDorsainvil +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Dorsainvil +0.28 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.05
Takedown threat Dorsainvil 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.83 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Dorsainvil · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Dorsainvil: power puncher · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Dorsainvil | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 55% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 42d | 126d |
| Data | thin | deep |
Dorsainvil range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Dorsainvil KO/TKO
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1337
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil submission
Model
1.4%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil decision
Model
22.7%
Fair
+340
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
16.4%
Fair
+511
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.5%
Fair
+1732
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
47.1%
Fair
+112
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 23% · submission 7% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Dorsainvil 71% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.3%
Fair
-499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
74.1%
Fair
-286
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
25.9%
Fair
+286
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.8%
Fair
-231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Dorsainvil 23% + Rodrigues 47%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Dorsainvil inside the distance
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1096
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil not inside the distance
Model
91.6%
Fair
-1096
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
21.8%
Fair
+358
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
78.2%
Fair
-358
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 1%
- Dorsainvil 0.70 KD / 15 · 71% of wins by KO/TKO
- Dorsainvil 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.2%
Fair
+987
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.