Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceYadong 53%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Yadong: 37%–69%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 21%
Briefing
Song Yadong is the model’s side at 53% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Song Yadong (pressure boxer, power puncher, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Yadong around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Yadong +0.58 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 21%. Yadong lands 4.9 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 1.1 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 63% versus 61%. Reach is 67" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Yadong's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Yadong enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Yadong — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Yadong enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formYadong +0.12
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Yadong +0.58 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Yadong has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowYadong +0.09
Yadong 28 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Yadong +0.06
Yadong striking rating 1765 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (79%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Grappling / controlYadong +0.02
Takedown threat Yadong 0.54 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 21%.
Attribute radar
Yadong · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Yadong: pressure boxer · power puncher · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Yadong | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-9-1 (1 NC) | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 28 | 34 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 67" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.62 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 35% | 38% |
| TD def. | 63% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 1.2m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 91d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Yadong range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Yadong KO/TKO
Model
9.1%
Fair
+1004
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Yadong submission
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2168
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Yadong decision
Model
40.0%
Fair
+150
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
11.3%
Fair
+785
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.8%
Fair
+2560
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
31.4%
Fair
+218
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 20% · submission 8% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Yadong 48% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 79%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.2%
Fair
-533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.6%
Fair
-310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.4%
Fair
+310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
71.5%
Fair
-251
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
28.5%
Fair
+251
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Yadong 40% + Rodrigues 31%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Yadong inside the distance
Model
13.5%
Fair
+642
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Yadong not inside the distance
Model
86.5%
Fair
-642
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
15.1%
Fair
+564
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
84.9%
Fair
-564
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 9% + SUB 4%
- Yadong 0.62 KD / 15 · 48% of wins by KO/TKO
- Yadong 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 13% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.6%
Fair
+1063
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2321
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.