Song Yadong (pressure boxer, power puncher, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Yadong around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Yadong +0.58 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 21%. Yadong lands 4.9 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 1.1 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 63% versus 61%. Reach is 67" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Yadong's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Yadong enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.