Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 64%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Woodson: 24%–51%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 72%
- Expected time
- 13:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 19%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 64% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Sean Woodson live if the fight is forced into distance kicker.
Sean Woodson (distance kicker, point fighter, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 64% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Woodson striking rating 1465 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Woodson lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy with a 0.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 78" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Woodson's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Woodson's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Woodson enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Woodson — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Woodson's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Woodson enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.66
Woodson striking rating 1465 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
- Reach that is actually usedWoodson +0.13
Woodson has a 3" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.05
Takedown threat Woodson 0.20 vs Rodrigues 0.82 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formWoodson +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Woodson +0.24 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingWoodson +0.05
Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.
Attribute radar
Woodson · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Woodson: distance kicker · point fighter · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Woodson | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-2-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 78" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 43% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 61% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.45 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 58% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.04 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 84d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Woodson range mix
- Distance81%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg32%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Woodson KO/TKO
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1639
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson submission
Model
2.4%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson decision
Model
28.1%
Fair
+255
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
14.5%
Fair
+592
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1904
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
44.3%
Fair
+126
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 20% · submission 7% · decision 72%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Woodson 46% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.7%
Fair
-554
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.3%
Fair
+554
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
76.4%
Fair
-324
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
23.6%
Fair
+324
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
72.4%
Fair
-263
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
27.6%
Fair
+263
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Woodson 28% + Rodrigues 44%
- Finish mass 28% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Woodson inside the distance
Model
8.1%
Fair
+1132
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson not inside the distance
Model
91.9%
Fair
-1132
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
19.4%
Fair
+414
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
80.5%
Fair
-414
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 2%
- Woodson 0.45 KD / 15 · 46% of wins by KO/TKO
- Woodson 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 8% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.3%
Fair
+554
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.3%
Fair
+1105
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2425
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 28% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.