Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceParnasse 61%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Parnasse: 43%–76%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 72%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 30%
Briefing
Salahdine Parnasse is the model’s side at 61% because of grappling / control, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Salahdine Parnasse (pressure wrestler, scrambler, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Parnasse around 61% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Parnasse 1.80 vs Rodrigues 0.68 per 15. Estimated grappling share 30%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 30%. Parnasse lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 3.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 81% versus 61%. Reach is 71" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Parnasse's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Parnasse enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Parnasse cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Parnasse — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Parnasse enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Parnasse cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlParnasse +0.30
Takedown threat Parnasse 1.80 vs Rodrigues 0.68 per 15. Estimated grappling share 30%.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.25
Parnasse striking rating 1620 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (70%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formParnasse +0.21
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Parnasse +1.00 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowParnasse +0.09
Parnasse 28 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseParnasse +0.06
Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
Attribute radar
Parnasse · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Parnasse: pressure wrestler · scrambler · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Parnasse | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-2 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 28 | 34 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 58% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.28 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 46% | 38% |
| TD def. | 81% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 4.8m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.14 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 84d | 126d |
| Data | standard | deep |
Parnasse range mix
- Distance50%
- Clinch16%
- Ground34%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Parnasse KO/TKO
Model
5.7%
Fair
+1661
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Parnasse submission
Model
13.2%
Fair
+656
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Parnasse decision
Model
42.0%
Fair
+138
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1618
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.6%
Fair
+2709
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
29.7%
Fair
+236
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 17% · decision 72%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Parnasse 26% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 70%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.3%
Fair
-537
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.7%
Fair
+537
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.8%
Fair
-313
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.2%
Fair
+313
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
71.7%
Fair
-253
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
28.3%
Fair
+253
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Parnasse 42% + Rodrigues 30%
- Finish mass 28% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Parnasse inside the distance
Model
18.9%
Fair
+429
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Parnasse not inside the distance
Model
81.1%
Fair
-429
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
9.4%
Fair
+966
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
90.6%
Fair
-966
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 13%
- Parnasse 0.28 KD / 15 · 26% of wins by KO/TKO
- Parnasse 0.9 sub attempts / 15 · 35% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.7%
Fair
+537
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.5%
Fair
+1076
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2345
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 28% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.