Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceDolidze 51%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Dolidze: 35%–67%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 72%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 25%
Briefing
Roman Dolidze is the model’s side at 51% because of grappling / control, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Roman Dolidze (sambo, power puncher, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC light heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Dolidze around 51% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Dolidze 1.07 vs Rodrigues 0.74 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 25%. Dolidze lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 2.1 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 61%. Reach is 76" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Dolidze's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Dolidze enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Dolidze cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Dolidze — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Dolidze enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- If Dolidze cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlDolidze +0.14
Takedown threat Dolidze 1.07 vs Rodrigues 0.74 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.11
Dolidze striking rating 1690 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (75%).
- Age / athletic windowRodrigues −0.10
Dolidze 38 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formDolidze +0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Dolidze +0.35 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityDolidze +0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Dolidze · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Dolidze: sambo · power puncher · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Dolidze | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-4 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 38 | 34 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 76" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 41% | 38% |
| TD def. | 70% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.8m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.02 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 119d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Dolidze range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Dolidze KO/TKO
Model
9.7%
Fair
+934
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Dolidze submission
Model
6.8%
Fair
+1364
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Dolidze decision
Model
34.6%
Fair
+189
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
7.8%
Fair
+1187
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2298
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
37.0%
Fair
+170
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 17% · submission 11% · decision 72%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Dolidze 60% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 75%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.2%
Fair
-533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.6%
Fair
-310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.4%
Fair
+310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
71.6%
Fair
-252
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
28.4%
Fair
+252
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Dolidze 35% + Rodrigues 37%
- Finish mass 28% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Dolidze inside the distance
Model
16.5%
Fair
+506
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Dolidze not inside the distance
Model
83.5%
Fair
-506
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
11.9%
Fair
+738
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
88.1%
Fair
-738
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 10% + SUB 7%
- Dolidze 0.70 KD / 15 · 60% of wins by KO/TKO
- Dolidze 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 20% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.6%
Fair
+1063
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2381
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 28% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.