Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceTsuruya 53%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Tsuruya: 38%–67%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 65%
- Expected time
- 12:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- Grappling share
- 34%
Briefing
Rei Tsuruya is the model’s side at 53% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Rei Tsuruya (pressure wrestler, submission hunter) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC flyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Tsuruya around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Tsuruya striking rating 1420 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (66%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 34%. Tsuruya lands 3.3 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 4.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 80% versus 61%. Reach is 66" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Tsuruya's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Tsuruya enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Tsuruya cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Tsuruya — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Tsuruya enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Tsuruya cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.62
Tsuruya striking rating 1420 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (66%).
- Grappling / controlTsuruya +0.46
Takedown threat Tsuruya 2.40 vs Rodrigues 0.68 per 15. Estimated grappling share 34%.
- Age / athletic windowTsuruya +0.07
Tsuruya 25 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsTsuruya +0.07
Tsuruya generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseTsuruya +0.06
Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formTsuruya +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Tsuruya +0.28 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Attribute radar
Tsuruya · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Tsuruya: pressure wrestler · submission hunter — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Tsuruya | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 25 | 34 |
| Height | 5'5" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 66" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 2.4 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 50% | 38% |
| TD def. | 80% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 6.2m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 91d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Tsuruya range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Tsuruya KO/TKO
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2065
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Tsuruya submission
Model
17.1%
Fair
+484
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Tsuruya decision
Model
30.9%
Fair
+224
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.0%
Fair
+1007
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2093
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
33.8%
Fair
+196
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 14% · submission 22% · decision 65%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Tsuruya 27% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 66%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
80.4%
Fair
-410
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
19.6%
Fair
+410
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
- Grappling share 34% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 80%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
69.7%
Fair
-230
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
30.3%
Fair
+230
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
- Grappling share 34% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 70%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
64.7%
Fair
-183
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
35.3%
Fair
+183
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Tsuruya 31% + Rodrigues 34%
- Finish mass 35% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.5 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Tsuruya inside the distance
Model
21.8%
Fair
+360
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Tsuruya not inside the distance
Model
78.3%
Fair
-360
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
13.6%
Fair
+636
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
86.4%
Fair
-636
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 5% + SUB 17%
- Tsuruya 0.25 KD / 15 · 27% of wins by KO/TKO
- Tsuruya 1.2 sub attempts / 15 · 55% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
19.6%
Fair
+410
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
10.7%
Fair
+835
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1884
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 35% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.