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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Rosas Jr. 55%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Rosas Jr. 55%Rodrigues 45%

90% interval on Rosas Jr.: 40%–69%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 65%
Expected time
12:30
P(over 2.5)
70%
Grappling share
36%

Briefing

Raul Rosas Jr. is the model’s side at 55% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.

Raul Rosas Jr. (pressure wrestler, submission hunter, scrambler) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rosas Jr. around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Rosas Jr. striking rating 1480 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (64%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 36%. Rosas Jr. lands 3.4 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 4.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 78% versus 61%. Reach is 70" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Rosas Jr.'s primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rosas Jr. enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

The swing variable is simple: If Rosas Jr. cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Rosas Jr. — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Rosas Jr. enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

Swing variables

  • If Rosas Jr. cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.49

    Rosas Jr. striking rating 1480 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (64%).

  • Grappling / controlRosas Jr. +0.40

    Takedown threat Rosas Jr. 2.65 vs Rodrigues 0.69 per 15. Estimated grappling share 36%.

  • Submission hunting vs defensive gapsRosas Jr. +0.07

    Rosas Jr. generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formRosas Jr. +0.07

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Rosas Jr. +0.32 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseRosas Jr. +0.06

    Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.

  • Age / athletic windowRosas Jr. +0.06

    Rosas Jr. 21 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityRosas Jr. +0.02

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

Attribute radar

Rosas Jr. · Rodrigues

Side-by-side

Rosas Jr.: pressure wrestler · submission hunter · scrambler — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

Rosas Jr.Rodrigues
Record12-116-6
Age (fight night)2134
Height5'9"6'2"
Reach70"75"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM3.45.2
SApM2.84.1
Str. acc.48%51%
Str. def.56%49%
KD / 150.120.92
TD avg4.81.6
TD acc.52%38%
TD def.78%61%
Sub avg1.50.3
Control / 156.8m1.8m
Late-round diff0.16-0.08
Layoff105d126d
Datadeepdeep

Rosas Jr. range mix

  • Distance
    48%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    40%
  • Head
    58%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    20%

Rodrigues range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    12%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    64%
  • Body
    20%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Rosas Jr. KO/TKO

Model

3.4%

Fair

+2876

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rosas Jr. submission

Model

20.6%

Fair

+384

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rosas Jr. decision

Model

30.8%

Fair

+224

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues KO/TKO

Model

6.6%

Fair

+1415

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues submission

Model

4.5%

Fair

+2147

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues decision

Model

34.1%

Fair

+193

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Model split: KO/TKO 10% · submission 25% · decision 65%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Rosas Jr. 17% · Rodrigues 69%
  • Standing share 64%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

Model

80.5%

Fair

-413

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

Model

19.5%

Fair

+413

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
  • Grappling share 36% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 81%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 2.5 rounds

Model

70.0%

Fair

-233

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 2.5 rounds

Model

30.0%

Fair

+233

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
  • Grappling share 36% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 70%)

Fight goes the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Goes the distance

Model

64.9%

Fair

-185

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Does not go the distance

Model

35.1%

Fair

+185

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Decision mass Rosas Jr. 31% + Rodrigues 34%
  • Finish mass 35% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 12.5 min

Inside the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Rosas Jr. inside the distance

Model

24.0%

Fair

+316

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rosas Jr. not inside the distance

Model

76.0%

Fair

-316

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues inside the distance

Model

11.1%

Fair

+805

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues not inside the distance

Model

88.9%

Fair

-805

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • KO 3% + SUB 21%
  • Rosas Jr. 0.12 KD / 15 · 17% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Rosas Jr. 1.5 sub attempts / 15 · 58% of wins by submission

Round of finish

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

Model

19.5%

Fair

+413

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

Model

10.5%

Fair

+852

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

Model

5.1%

Fair

+1876

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 35% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
How the model works