Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRuziboev 58%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Ruziboev: 42%–72%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 66%
- Expected time
- 12:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 71%
- Grappling share
- 23%
Briefing
Nursulton Ruziboev is the model’s side at 58% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Nursulton Ruziboev (power puncher, opportunistic, sambo) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC middleweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Ruziboev around 58% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Ruziboev +0.59 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Ruziboev lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy with a 1.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 61%. Reach is 76" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Ruziboev's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Ruziboev enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Ruziboev cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Ruziboev — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Ruziboev enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- If Ruziboev cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRuziboev +0.13
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Ruziboev +0.59 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlRuziboev +0.05
Takedown threat Ruziboev 0.75 vs Rodrigues 0.77 per 15. Estimated grappling share 23%.
- Age / athletic windowRuziboev +0.05
Ruziboev 32 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Ruziboev +0.04
Ruziboev striking rating 1760 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRuziboev +0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Ruziboev · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Ruziboev: power puncher · opportunistic · sambo — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Ruziboev | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 37-9-2 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 76" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 50% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 48% | 38% |
| TD def. | 66% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 4.8m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 105d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Ruziboev range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ruziboev KO/TKO
Model
13.9%
Fair
+619
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ruziboev submission
Model
7.1%
Fair
+1299
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ruziboev decision
Model
36.6%
Fair
+173
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.3%
Fair
+974
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2757
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
29.5%
Fair
+239
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 23% · submission 11% · decision 66%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Ruziboev 76% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
81.2%
Fair
-432
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
18.8%
Fair
+432
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 34% · decision 66%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 81%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
71.0%
Fair
-245
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
29.0%
Fair
+245
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 34% · decision 66%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 71%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
66.1%
Fair
-195
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
33.9%
Fair
+195
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Ruziboev 37% + Rodrigues 30%
- Finish mass 34% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.5 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ruziboev inside the distance
Model
21.1%
Fair
+375
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ruziboev not inside the distance
Model
79.0%
Fair
-375
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
12.8%
Fair
+681
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
87.2%
Fair
-681
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 14% + SUB 7%
- Ruziboev 0.95 KD / 15 · 76% of wins by KO/TKO
- Ruziboev 0.8 sub attempts / 15 · 14% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
18.8%
Fair
+432
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
10.2%
Fair
+880
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1962
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 34% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.