CORNER

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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Rodrigues 71%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Rojas 29%Rodrigues 71%

90% interval on Rojas: 17%–46%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 70%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
74%
Grappling share
23%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 71% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Nilson Rojas live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.

Nilson Rojas (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 71% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Rojas striking rating 1420 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Rojas lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 1.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 61%. Reach is 70" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Rojas's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rojas enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rojas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Rojas — paths

  1. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Rojas enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Rojas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.72

    Rojas striking rating 1420 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).

  • Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11

    Rojas has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.

  • Age / athletic windowRojas +0.10

    Rojas 30 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.07

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Rojas -0.28 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.03

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

Attribute radar

Rojas · Rodrigues

Side-by-side

Rojas: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

RojasRodrigues
Record12-316-6
Age (fight night)3034
Height5'8"6'2"
Reach70"75"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM4.45.2
SApM3.64.1
Str. acc.47%51%
Str. def.52%49%
KD / 150.400.92
TD avg1.61.6
TD acc.36%38%
TD def.60%61%
Sub avg0.60.3
Control / 152.0m1.8m
Late-round diff0.00-0.08
Layoff105d126d
Datastandarddeep

Rojas range mix

  • Distance
    70%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

Rodrigues range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    12%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    64%
  • Body
    20%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Rojas KO/TKO

Model

4.1%

Fair

+2345

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rojas submission

Model

4.3%

Fair

+2242

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rojas decision

Model

21.1%

Fair

+374

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues KO/TKO

Model

16.1%

Fair

+522

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues submission

Model

5.9%

Fair

+1604

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues decision

Model

48.6%

Fair

+106

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Model split: KO/TKO 20% · submission 10% · decision 70%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Rojas 42% · Rodrigues 69%
  • Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

Model

83.2%

Fair

-495

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

Model

16.8%

Fair

+495

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
  • Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 2.5 rounds

Model

74.1%

Fair

-286

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 2.5 rounds

Model

25.9%

Fair

+286

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
  • Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)

Fight goes the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Goes the distance

Model

69.7%

Fair

-230

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Does not go the distance

Model

30.3%

Fair

+230

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Decision mass Rojas 21% + Rodrigues 49%
  • Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min

Inside the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Rojas inside the distance

Model

8.4%

Fair

+1096

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rojas not inside the distance

Model

91.6%

Fair

-1096

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues inside the distance

Model

21.9%

Fair

+356

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues not inside the distance

Model

78.1%

Fair

-356

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • KO 4% + SUB 4%
  • Rojas 0.40 KD / 15 · 42% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Rojas 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 25% of wins by submission

Round of finish

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

Model

16.8%

Fair

+495

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

Model

9.1%

Fair

+999

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

Model

4.4%

Fair

+2173

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
How the model works