Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 70%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Charrière: 18%–47%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- Grappling share
- 22%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 70% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Morgan Charrière live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Morgan Charrière (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer, brawler) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 70% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Charrière striking rating 1411 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Charrière lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 61%. Reach is 69" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Charrière's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Charrière's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Charrière enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Charrière's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Charrière — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Charrière's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Charrière enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Charrière's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.76
Charrière striking rating 1411 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Charrière has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowCharrière +0.10
Charrière 30 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formCharrière +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Charrière +0.24 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.02
Takedown threat Charrière 0.59 vs Rodrigues 0.80 per 15. Estimated grappling share 22%.
Attribute radar
Charrière · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Charrière: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · brawler — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Charrière | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-11-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 34 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 69" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 44% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 51% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.50 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 60% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 91d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Charrière range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Charrière KO/TKO
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1912
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Charrière submission
Model
2.7%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Charrière decision
Model
22.6%
Fair
+342
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
17.9%
Fair
+457
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.7%
Fair
+1657
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
46.1%
Fair
+117
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 23% · submission 8% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Charrière 50% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 78%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.6%
Fair
-475
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.4%
Fair
+475
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.2%
Fair
-273
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.8%
Fair
+273
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
68.7%
Fair
-220
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
31.3%
Fair
+220
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Charrière 23% + Rodrigues 46%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Charrière inside the distance
Model
7.6%
Fair
+1207
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Charrière not inside the distance
Model
92.3%
Fair
-1207
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
23.6%
Fair
+323
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
76.4%
Fair
-323
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 5% + SUB 3%
- Charrière 0.50 KD / 15 · 50% of wins by KO/TKO
- Charrière 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 15% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.4%
Fair
+475
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.4%
Fair
+964
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2137
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.