Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidencePage 55%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Page: 41%–69%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 73%
- Expected time
- 13:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 77%
- Grappling share
- 19%
Briefing
Michael Page is the model’s side at 55% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Michael Page (counter striker, distance kicker, southpaw kicker, point fighter) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC middleweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Page around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Page striking rating 1840 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Page lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy with a 0.3 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 52% versus 61%. Reach is 79" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Page's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Page's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Page enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Page — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Page's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Page enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Page +0.24
Page striking rating 1840 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
- Reach that is actually usedPage +0.14
Page has a 4" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.
- Age / athletic windowRodrigues −0.13
Page 39 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.12
Takedown threat Page 0.15 vs Rodrigues 0.85 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingPage +0.06
Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formPage +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Page +0.25 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.03
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Page · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Page: counter striker · distance kicker · southpaw kicker · point fighter — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Page | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 39 | 34 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 79" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 58% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 70% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 52% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.02 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 126d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Page range mix
- Distance88%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head55%
- Body22%
- Leg22%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Page KO/TKO
Model
10.9%
Fair
+820
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Page submission
Model
3.1%
Fair
+3168
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Page decision
Model
41.5%
Fair
+141
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.7%
Fair
+933
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2774
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
31.4%
Fair
+218
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 21% · submission 7% · decision 73%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Page 56% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
85.0%
Fair
-567
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.0%
Fair
+567
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
76.8%
Fair
-331
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
23.2%
Fair
+331
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 77%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
72.9%
Fair
-269
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
27.1%
Fair
+269
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Page 41% + Rodrigues 31%
- Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Page inside the distance
Model
13.9%
Fair
+618
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Page not inside the distance
Model
86.1%
Fair
-618
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
13.2%
Fair
+660
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
86.8%
Fair
-660
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 11% + SUB 3%
- Page 0.70 KD / 15 · 56% of wins by KO/TKO
- Page 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 4% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.0%
Fair
+567
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1120
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2464
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 27% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.