Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRuffy 55%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Ruffy: 39%–70%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 19%
Briefing
Mauricio Ruffy is the model’s side at 55% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Mauricio Ruffy (power puncher, muay thai, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Ruffy around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Ruffy striking rating 1780 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Ruffy lands 5.4 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 73" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Ruffy's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Ruffy enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Ruffy — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Rodrigues's entries slow.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Ruffy enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Ruffy +0.10
Ruffy striking rating 1780 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
- Age / athletic windowRuffy +0.10
Ruffy 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.07
Takedown threat Ruffy 0.20 vs Rodrigues 0.82 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRuffy +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Ruffy +0.30 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRuffy +0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Ruffy · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Ruffy: power puncher · muay thai · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Ruffy | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 58% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.04 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 98d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Ruffy range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg30%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ruffy KO/TKO
Model
15.2%
Fair
+560
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ruffy submission
Model
2.5%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ruffy decision
Model
37.6%
Fair
+166
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.4%
Fair
+962
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2757
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
31.9%
Fair
+214
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 25% · submission 6% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Ruffy 83% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.1%
Fair
-492
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.9%
Fair
+492
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.8%
Fair
-282
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.2%
Fair
+282
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.5%
Fair
-227
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.5%
Fair
+227
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Ruffy 38% + Rodrigues 32%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ruffy inside the distance
Model
17.6%
Fair
+468
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ruffy not inside the distance
Model
82.4%
Fair
-468
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
12.9%
Fair
+674
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
87.1%
Fair
-674
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 15% + SUB 2%
- Ruffy 1.05 KD / 15 · 83% of wins by KO/TKO
- Ruffy 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.9%
Fair
+492
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.3%
Fair
+975
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2204
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.