Mauricio Ruffy (power puncher, muay thai, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Ruffy around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Ruffy striking rating 1780 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Ruffy lands 5.4 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 73" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Ruffy's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Ruffy enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.