Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 52%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Mederos: 35%–62%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 72%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 24%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 52% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with MarQuel Mederos live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
MarQuel Mederos (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 52% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Mederos striking rating 1610 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Mederos lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 1.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 61%. Reach is 72" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Mederos's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Mederos enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Mederos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Mederos — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Mederos enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Mederos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.29
Mederos striking rating 1610 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formMederos +0.13
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Mederos +0.63 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowMederos +0.10
Mederos 30 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Grappling / controlMederos +0.01
Takedown threat Mederos 0.88 vs Rodrigues 0.77 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.
Attribute radar
Mederos · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Mederos: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Mederos | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 34 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 66% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 91d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Mederos range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Mederos KO/TKO
Model
6.2%
Fair
+1516
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Mederos submission
Model
7.3%
Fair
+1261
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Mederos decision
Model
34.7%
Fair
+188
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
10.0%
Fair
+905
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2204
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
37.5%
Fair
+167
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 16% · submission 12% · decision 72%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Mederos 36% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.6%
Fair
-549
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.4%
Fair
+549
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
76.2%
Fair
-320
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
23.8%
Fair
+320
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
72.2%
Fair
-259
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
27.8%
Fair
+259
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Mederos 35% + Rodrigues 37%
- Finish mass 28% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Mederos inside the distance
Model
13.5%
Fair
+639
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Mederos not inside the distance
Model
86.5%
Fair
-639
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
14.3%
Fair
+600
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
85.7%
Fair
-600
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 7%
- Mederos 0.40 KD / 15 · 36% of wins by KO/TKO
- Mederos 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 27% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.4%
Fair
+549
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1090
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2381
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 28% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.