Ce

Liu · 3-1

31 yrs · 6'4" · 78" reach · Orthodox

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

low confidence

Rodrigues 67%

Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.

Ce 33%Rodrigues 67%

90% interval on Ce: 16%–57%. Never a lock.

Most likely: Decision 67%
Expected time: 12:36
P(over 2.5): 72%
Grappling share: 19%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 67% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Liu Ce live if the fight is forced into power puncher.

Liu Ce (power puncher, muay thai) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC light heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 67% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Ce striking rating 1472 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Ce lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.3 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 50% versus 61%. Reach is 78" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Ce's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Ce enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Ce — paths

One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Rodrigues's entries slow.

Failure modes

The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Rodrigues — paths

One clean counter or lead hook as Ce enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Swing variables

What moved it from 50/50

Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.64
Ce striking rating 1472 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Ce has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
Age / athletic windowCe +0.07
Ce 31 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.07
Takedown threat Ce 0.15 vs Rodrigues 0.86 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.
Recency and opponent-adjusted formCe +0.04
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Ce +0.22 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Finishing threat vs durabilityCe +0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

Attribute radar

Ce · Rodrigues

Side-by-side

Ce: power puncher · muay thai — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

	Ce	Rodrigues
Record	3-1	16-6
Age (fight night)	31	34
Height	6'4"	6'2"
Reach	78"	75"
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
SLpM	4.4	5.2
SApM	3.2	4.1
Str. acc.	47%	51%
Str. def.	52%	49%
KD / 15	0.90	0.92
TD avg	0.3	1.6
TD acc.	36%	38%
TD def.	50%	61%
Sub avg	0.3	0.3
Control / 15	2.0m	1.8m
Late-round diff	0.00	-0.08
Layoff	63d	126d
Data	thin	deep

Ce range mix

Distance
74%
Clinch
28%
Ground
6%
Head
68%
Body
22%
Leg
30%

Rodrigues range mix

Distance
72%
Clinch
12%
Ground
16%
Head
64%
Body
20%
Leg
16%

Method of victory

Ce KO/TKO
10%
Ce SUB
1%
Ce DEC
22%
Rodrigues KO/TKO
16%
Rodrigues SUB
5%
Rodrigues DEC
46%

How the model works