Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 67%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Ce: 16%–57%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 67%
- Expected time
- 12:36
- P(over 2.5)
- 72%
- Grappling share
- 19%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 67% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Liu Ce live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Liu Ce (power puncher, muay thai) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC light heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 67% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Ce striking rating 1472 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Ce lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.3 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 50% versus 61%. Reach is 78" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Ce's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Ce enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Ce — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Rodrigues's entries slow.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Ce enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.64
Ce striking rating 1472 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Ce has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowCe +0.07
Ce 31 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.07
Takedown threat Ce 0.15 vs Rodrigues 0.86 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formCe +0.04
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Ce +0.22 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityCe +0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Ce · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Ce: power puncher · muay thai — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Ce | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 31 | 34 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 78" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 50% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 63d | 126d |
| Data | thin | deep |
Ce range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg30%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ce KO/TKO
Model
9.8%
Fair
+916
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ce submission
Model
1.5%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ce decision
Model
21.9%
Fair
+357
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
16.0%
Fair
+524
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1812
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
45.6%
Fair
+120
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 26% · submission 7% · decision 67%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Ce 100% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
81.9%
Fair
-452
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
18.1%
Fair
+452
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 33% · decision 67%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 82%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
72.1%
Fair
-258
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
27.9%
Fair
+258
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 33% · decision 67%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 72%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
67.4%
Fair
-207
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
32.6%
Fair
+207
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Ce 22% + Rodrigues 46%
- Finish mass 33% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.6 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ce inside the distance
Model
11.3%
Fair
+783
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ce not inside the distance
Model
88.7%
Fair
-783
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
21.3%
Fair
+370
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
78.7%
Fair
-370
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 10% + SUB 1%
- Ce 0.90 KD / 15 · 100% of wins by KO/TKO
- Ce 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
18.1%
Fair
+452
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.8%
Fair
+920
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.7%
Fair
+2041
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 33% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.