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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Rodrigues 65%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Vallejos 35%Rodrigues 65%

90% interval on Vallejos: 21%–51%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 70%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
74%
Grappling share
22%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 65% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Kevin Vallejos live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.

Kevin Vallejos (pressure boxer, power puncher) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 65% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Vallejos striking rating 1481 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Vallejos lands 5.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 61%. Reach is 71" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Vallejos's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Vallejos enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Vallejos — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Vallejos enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Swing variables

    What moved it from 50/50

    • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.60

      Vallejos striking rating 1481 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).

    • Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11

      Vallejos has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.

    • Age / athletic windowVallejos +0.07

      Vallejos 25 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

    • Recency and opponent-adjusted formVallejos +0.06

      Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Vallejos +0.28 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

    • Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.01

      Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

    Attribute radar

    Vallejos · Rodrigues

    Side-by-side

    Vallejos: pressure boxer · power puncher — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

    VallejosRodrigues
    Record16-116-6
    Age (fight night)2534
    Height5'9"6'2"
    Reach71"75"
    StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
    SLpM5.05.2
    SApM3.44.1
    Str. acc.48%51%
    Str. def.52%49%
    KD / 150.700.92
    TD avg1.21.6
    TD acc.36%38%
    TD def.68%61%
    Sub avg0.30.3
    Control / 152.0m1.8m
    Late-round diff0.12-0.08
    Layoff70d126d
    Datadeepdeep

    Vallejos range mix

    • Distance
      72%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      14%
    • Head
      65%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      13%

    Rodrigues range mix

    • Distance
      72%
    • Clinch
      12%
    • Ground
      16%
    • Head
      64%
    • Body
      20%
    • Leg
      16%

    Method of victory

    • Vallejos KO/TKO
      7%
    • Vallejos SUB
      3%
    • Vallejos DEC
      25%
    • Rodrigues KO/TKO
      15%
    • Rodrigues SUB
      5%
    • Rodrigues DEC
      45%
    How the model works