Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 65%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Vallejos: 21%–51%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 22%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 65% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Kevin Vallejos live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Kevin Vallejos (pressure boxer, power puncher) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 65% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Vallejos striking rating 1481 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Vallejos lands 5.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 61%. Reach is 71" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Vallejos's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Vallejos enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Vallejos — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Vallejos enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.60
Vallejos striking rating 1481 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Vallejos has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowVallejos +0.07
Vallejos 25 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formVallejos +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Vallejos +0.28 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Vallejos · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Vallejos: pressure boxer · power puncher — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Vallejos | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-1 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 25 | 34 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 68% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.12 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 70d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Vallejos range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Vallejos KO/TKO
Model
7.1%
Fair
+1312
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Vallejos submission
Model
2.8%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Vallejos decision
Model
25.0%
Fair
+300
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
15.2%
Fair
+560
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1794
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
44.6%
Fair
+124
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 22% · submission 8% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Vallejos 63% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 78%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.2%
Fair
-495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
74.0%
Fair
-285
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.0%
Fair
+285
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.7%
Fair
-230
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.3%
Fair
+230
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Vallejos 25% + Rodrigues 45%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Vallejos inside the distance
Model
9.9%
Fair
+909
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Vallejos not inside the distance
Model
90.1%
Fair
-909
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
20.4%
Fair
+389
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
79.6%
Fair
-389
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 3%
- Vallejos 0.70 KD / 15 · 63% of wins by KO/TKO
- Vallejos 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 13% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.2%
Fair
+987
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2204
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.