Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 71%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Borjas: 17%–45%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 71% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Kevin Borjas live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Kevin Borjas (power puncher, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC flyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 71% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Borjas striking rating 1442 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Borjas lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 68" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Borjas's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Borjas enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Borjas — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Borjas enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.70
Borjas striking rating 1442 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Borjas has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowBorjas +0.09
Borjas 28 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Borjas -0.30 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.05
Takedown threat Borjas 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.82 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Borjas · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Borjas: power puncher · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Borjas | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-5 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 28 | 34 |
| Height | 5'6" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 68" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 58% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 112d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Borjas range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Borjas KO/TKO
Model
6.5%
Fair
+1431
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas submission
Model
1.3%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas decision
Model
21.0%
Fair
+376
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
16.9%
Fair
+491
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.6%
Fair
+1676
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
48.6%
Fair
+106
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 23% · submission 7% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Borjas 73% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.1%
Fair
-492
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.9%
Fair
+492
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
74.0%
Fair
-285
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.0%
Fair
+285
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.6%
Fair
-229
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.4%
Fair
+229
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Borjas 21% + Rodrigues 49%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Borjas inside the distance
Model
7.8%
Fair
+1177
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas not inside the distance
Model
92.2%
Fair
-1177
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
22.6%
Fair
+343
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
77.4%
Fair
-343
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 1%
- Borjas 0.70 KD / 15 · 73% of wins by KO/TKO
- Borjas 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.9%
Fair
+492
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2178
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.