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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Rodrigues 57%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Vieira 43%Rodrigues 57%

90% interval on Vieira: 27%–60%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 77%
Expected time
13:24
P(over 2.5)
80%
Grappling share
22%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 57% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Ketlen Vieira live if the fight is forced into point fighter.

Ketlen Vieira (point fighter, defensive wrestler, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC women's featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 57% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Vieira striking rating 1580 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Vieira lands 3.4 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 1.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 72% versus 61%. Reach is 68" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Vieira's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Vieira enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

The swing variable is simple: If Vieira cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Vieira — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Vieira's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Vieira enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
  • Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

Swing variables

  • If Vieira cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
  • First fight in a new camp is a known variance injector — treat the film as the prior, not the guarantee.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.37

    Vieira striking rating 1580 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).

  • Grappling / controlVieira +0.11

    Takedown threat Vieira 0.66 vs Rodrigues 0.73 per 15. Estimated grappling share 22%.

  • Camp changeRodrigues −0.05

    Vieira: Left UFC for PFL, first fight at 145 in this camp cycle. Camp changes are a small negative prior until a fight sample exists in the new room.

  • Counter striker vs pressure boxingVieira +0.03

    Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.03

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formVieira +0.02

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Vieira +0.11 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Attribute radar

Vieira · Rodrigues

Side-by-side

Vieira: point fighter · defensive wrestler · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

VieiraRodrigues
Record15-416-6
Age (fight night)3434
Height5'8"6'2"
Reach68"75"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM3.45.2
SApM2.94.1
Str. acc.44%51%
Str. def.58%49%
KD / 150.200.92
TD avg1.41.6
TD acc.32%38%
TD def.72%61%
Sub avg0.40.3
Control / 151.6m1.8m
Late-round diff0.02-0.08
Layoff133d126d
Datastandarddeep

Vieira range mix

  • Distance
    77%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    9%
  • Head
    58%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    20%

Rodrigues range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    12%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    64%
  • Body
    20%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Vieira KO/TKO

Model

3.7%

Fair

+2603

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Vieira submission

Model

5.5%

Fair

+1702

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Vieira decision

Model

33.5%

Fair

+199

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues KO/TKO

Model

9.1%

Fair

+1000

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues submission

Model

4.7%

Fair

+2041

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues decision

Model

43.5%

Fair

+130

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Model split: KO/TKO 13% · submission 10% · decision 77%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Vieira 20% · Rodrigues 69%
  • Standing share 78%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

Model

87.2%

Fair

-681

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

Model

12.8%

Fair

+681

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
  • Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 87%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 2.5 rounds

Model

80.3%

Fair

-408

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 2.5 rounds

Model

19.7%

Fair

+408

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
  • Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 80%)

Fight goes the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Goes the distance

Model

77.0%

Fair

-335

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Does not go the distance

Model

23.0%

Fair

+335

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Decision mass Vieira 33% + Rodrigues 44%
  • Finish mass 23% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 13.4 min

Inside the distance

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Vieira inside the distance

Model

9.3%

Fair

+981

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Vieira not inside the distance

Model

90.8%

Fair

-981

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues inside the distance

Model

13.8%

Fair

+627

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Rodrigues not inside the distance

Model

86.2%

Fair

-627

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • KO 4% + SUB 6%
  • Vieira 0.20 KD / 15 · 20% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Vieira 0.4 sub attempts / 15 · 27% of wins by submission

Round of finish

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

Model

12.8%

Fair

+681

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

Model

6.9%

Fair

+1349

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

Model

3.3%

Fair

+2921

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 23% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
How the model works