Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 68%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Nzechukwu: 19%–48%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 68% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Kennedy Nzechukwu live if the fight is forced into distance kicker.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (distance kicker, power puncher) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 68% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Nzechukwu striking rating 1419 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Nzechukwu lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 61%. Reach is 83" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Nzechukwu's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Nzechukwu's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Nzechukwu enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Nzechukwu — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Nzechukwu's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Nzechukwu enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.76
Nzechukwu striking rating 1419 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Reach that is actually usedNzechukwu +0.19
Nzechukwu has a 8" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Nzechukwu has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.04
Takedown threat Nzechukwu 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.01
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Nzechukwu -0.02 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Attribute radar
Nzechukwu · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Nzechukwu: distance kicker · power puncher — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Nzechukwu | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-6 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 83" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.60 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 64% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.12 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 147d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Nzechukwu range mix
- Distance80%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg32%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Nzechukwu KO/TKO
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1347
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Nzechukwu submission
Model
2.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Nzechukwu decision
Model
22.8%
Fair
+339
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
16.3%
Fair
+514
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.4%
Fair
+1759
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
46.6%
Fair
+115
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 23% · submission 7% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Nzechukwu 71% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.0%
Fair
-488
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.0%
Fair
+488
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.8%
Fair
-282
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.2%
Fair
+282
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.4%
Fair
-227
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.6%
Fair
+227
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Nzechukwu 23% + Rodrigues 47%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Nzechukwu inside the distance
Model
8.9%
Fair
+1017
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Nzechukwu not inside the distance
Model
91.0%
Fair
-1017
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
21.7%
Fair
+361
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
78.3%
Fair
-361
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 2%
- Nzechukwu 0.60 KD / 15 · 71% of wins by KO/TKO
- Nzechukwu 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 7% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.0%
Fair
+488
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.2%
Fair
+987
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2168
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.