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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Rodrigues 68%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Nzechukwu 32%Rodrigues 68%

90% interval on Nzechukwu: 19%–48%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 69%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
74%
Grappling share
20%

Briefing

Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 68% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Kennedy Nzechukwu live if the fight is forced into distance kicker.

Kennedy Nzechukwu (distance kicker, power puncher) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 68% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Nzechukwu striking rating 1419 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Nzechukwu lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 61%. Reach is 83" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Nzechukwu's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Nzechukwu's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Nzechukwu enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Nzechukwu — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Nzechukwu's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
  2. One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Nzechukwu enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Swing variables

    What moved it from 50/50

    • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.76

      Nzechukwu striking rating 1419 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

    • Reach that is actually usedNzechukwu +0.19

      Nzechukwu has a 8" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.

    • Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11

      Nzechukwu has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.

    • Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.04

      Takedown threat Nzechukwu 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.

    • Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.01

      Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Nzechukwu -0.02 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

    Attribute radar

    Nzechukwu · Rodrigues

    Side-by-side

    Nzechukwu: distance kicker · power puncher — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

    NzechukwuRodrigues
    Record14-616-6
    Age (fight night)3434
    Height6'5"6'2"
    Reach83"75"
    StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
    SLpM4.45.2
    SApM3.94.1
    Str. acc.46%51%
    Str. def.52%49%
    KD / 150.600.92
    TD avg0.61.6
    TD acc.36%38%
    TD def.64%61%
    Sub avg0.30.3
    Control / 152.0m1.8m
    Late-round diff-0.12-0.08
    Layoff147d126d
    Datadeepdeep

    Nzechukwu range mix

    • Distance
      80%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      6%
    • Head
      68%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      32%

    Rodrigues range mix

    • Distance
      72%
    • Clinch
      12%
    • Ground
      16%
    • Head
      64%
    • Body
      20%
    • Leg
      16%

    Method of victory

    • Nzechukwu KO/TKO
      7%
    • Nzechukwu SUB
      2%
    • Nzechukwu DEC
      23%
    • Rodrigues KO/TKO
      16%
    • Rodrigues SUB
      5%
    • Rodrigues DEC
      47%
    How the model works