Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 53%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Asakura: 32%–63%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 68%
- Expected time
- 12:36
- P(over 2.5)
- 72%
- Grappling share
- 21%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 53% because of power vs durability, with Kai Asakura live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Kai Asakura (power puncher, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is power vs durability: Asakura has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 21%. Asakura lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 0.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 61%. Reach is 70" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Asakura's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Asakura's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Asakura enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Asakura — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Asakura's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Asakura enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Asakura has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingAsakura +0.07
Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.06
Takedown threat Asakura 0.39 vs Rodrigues 0.80 per 15. Estimated grappling share 21%.
- Age / athletic windowAsakura +0.05
Asakura 32 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessRodrigues −0.02
Asakura 175 days out · Rodrigues 126 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.01
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Asakura -0.04 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.01
Asakura striking rating 1735 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (79%).
Attribute radar
Asakura · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Asakura: power puncher · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Asakura | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-5 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 70" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 60% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.10 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 175d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Asakura range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Asakura KO/TKO
Model
10.5%
Fair
+853
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Asakura submission
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2419
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Asakura decision
Model
32.4%
Fair
+209
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
13.7%
Fair
+628
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2258
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
35.1%
Fair
+185
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 24% · submission 8% · decision 68%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Asakura 67% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.0%
Fair
-456
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
18.0%
Fair
+456
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 82%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
72.2%
Fair
-260
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
27.8%
Fair
+260
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 72%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
67.5%
Fair
-208
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
32.5%
Fair
+208
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Asakura 32% + Rodrigues 35%
- Finish mass 32% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.6 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Asakura inside the distance
Model
14.5%
Fair
+592
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Asakura not inside the distance
Model
85.5%
Fair
-592
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
18.0%
Fair
+456
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
82.0%
Fair
-456
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 10% + SUB 4%
- Asakura 0.85 KD / 15 · 67% of wins by KO/TKO
- Asakura 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 14% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
18.0%
Fair
+456
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.8%
Fair
+920
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2051
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 32% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.