Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 72%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Tafa: 16%–43%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 67%
- Expected time
- 12:36
- P(over 2.5)
- 71%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 72% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Junior Tafa live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Junior Tafa (power puncher, brawler) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC light heavyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 72% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Tafa striking rating 1417 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Tafa lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 0.5 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 54% versus 61%. Reach is 74" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Tafa's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Tafa enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Tafa — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
- Output historically fades late. A fast start that isn't a finish can still lose the fight.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Tafa enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.76
Tafa striking rating 1417 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Tafa has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Age / athletic windowTafa +0.10
Tafa 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Tafa -0.30 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.06
Takedown threat Tafa 0.25 vs Rodrigues 0.84 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Tafa · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Tafa: power puncher · brawler — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Tafa | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-6 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 74" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 49% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 54% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.16 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 119d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Tafa range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Tafa KO/TKO
Model
7.1%
Fair
+1316
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Tafa submission
Model
1.2%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Tafa decision
Model
19.3%
Fair
+418
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
19.4%
Fair
+416
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.7%
Fair
+1651
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
47.3%
Fair
+111
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 26% · submission 7% · decision 67%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Tafa 86% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
81.5%
Fair
-441
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
18.5%
Fair
+441
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 33% · decision 67%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 82%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
71.4%
Fair
-250
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
28.6%
Fair
+250
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 33% · decision 67%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 71%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
66.6%
Fair
-199
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
33.4%
Fair
+199
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Tafa 19% + Rodrigues 47%
- Finish mass 33% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.6 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Tafa inside the distance
Model
8.3%
Fair
+1105
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Tafa not inside the distance
Model
91.7%
Fair
-1105
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
25.1%
Fair
+298
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
74.9%
Fair
-298
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 1%
- Tafa 0.75 KD / 15 · 86% of wins by KO/TKO
- Tafa 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
18.5%
Fair
+441
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
10.1%
Fair
+890
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1983
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 33% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.