Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceVan 60%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Van: 46%–72%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 78%
- Expected time
- 13:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 81%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Joshua Van is the model’s side at 60% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Joshua Van (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer, southpaw kicker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC flyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Van around 60% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Van +0.86 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Van lands 6.4 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 61%. Reach is 66" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Van's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Van's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Van enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Van's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Van — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Van's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Van enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Van's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formVan +0.18
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Van +0.86 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Van +0.17
Van striking rating 1810 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Age / athletic windowVan +0.07
Van 24 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Grappling / controlVan +0.02
Takedown threat Van 0.37 vs Rodrigues 0.77 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessRodrigues −0.02
Van 154 days out · Rodrigues 126 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
Attribute radar
Van · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Van: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · southpaw kicker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Van | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 24 | 34 |
| Height | 5'5" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 66" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 6.4 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 30% | 38% |
| TD def. | 66% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 0.8m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.22 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 154d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Van range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head58%
- Body24%
- Leg18%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Van KO/TKO
Model
7.9%
Fair
+1159
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Van submission
Model
3.4%
Fair
+2867
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Van decision
Model
48.4%
Fair
+107
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
7.3%
Fair
+1262
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.2%
Fair
+3025
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
29.8%
Fair
+236
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 15% · submission 7% · decision 78%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Van 36% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
87.9%
Fair
-726
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
12.1%
Fair
+726
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 88%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
81.3%
Fair
-435
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
18.7%
Fair
+435
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 81%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
78.1%
Fair
-358
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
21.9%
Fair
+358
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Van 48% + Rodrigues 30%
- Finish mass 22% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.5 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Van inside the distance
Model
11.3%
Fair
+784
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Van not inside the distance
Model
88.7%
Fair
-784
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
10.5%
Fair
+849
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
89.5%
Fair
-849
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 8% + SUB 3%
- Van 0.40 KD / 15 · 36% of wins by KO/TKO
- Van 0.2 sub attempts / 15 · 7% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
12.1%
Fair
+726
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
6.6%
Fair
+1415
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.1%
Fair
+3075
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 22% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.