Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceLineker 52%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Lineker: 30%–73%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 76%
- Expected time
- 13:18
- P(over 2.5)
- 79%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
John Lineker is the model’s side at 52% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
John Lineker (pressure boxer, power puncher, brawler) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Lineker around 52% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Lineker +0.30 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Lineker lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 72% versus 61%. Reach is 67" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Lineker's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Lineker enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Lineker — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Lineker enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formLineker +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Lineker +0.30 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Lineker +0.06
Lineker striking rating 1765 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Age / athletic windowRodrigues −0.05
Lineker 36 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Lineker · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Lineker: pressure boxer · power puncher · brawler — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Lineker | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 36-10 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 36 | 34 |
| Height | 5'3" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 67" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 50% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.60 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 72% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 91d | 126d |
| Data | thin | deep |
Lineker range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Lineker KO/TKO
Model
8.5%
Fair
+1072
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Lineker submission
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2226
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Lineker decision
Model
39.0%
Fair
+156
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
7.8%
Fair
+1176
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.8%
Fair
+2525
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
36.5%
Fair
+174
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 16% · submission 8% · decision 76%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Lineker 44% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
86.4%
Fair
-635
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
13.6%
Fair
+635
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 24% · decision 76%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 86%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
79.0%
Fair
-376
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
21.0%
Fair
+376
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 24% · decision 76%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 79%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
75.5%
Fair
-308
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
24.5%
Fair
+308
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Lineker 39% + Rodrigues 37%
- Finish mass 24% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.3 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Lineker inside the distance
Model
12.8%
Fair
+679
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Lineker not inside the distance
Model
87.2%
Fair
-679
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
11.6%
Fair
+758
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
88.3%
Fair
-758
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 9% + SUB 4%
- Lineker 0.60 KD / 15 · 44% of wins by KO/TKO
- Lineker 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 14% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
13.6%
Fair
+635
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.4%
Fair
+1251
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2774
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 24% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.