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Any two fighters, current snapshots, three-round hypothetical. Not a booked fight — the engine still runs the same factors.

Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots

vs

Wed, Aug 19, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Buckley 55%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Buckley 55%Rodrigues 45%

90% interval on Buckley: 39%–70%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 73%
Expected time
13:06
P(over 2.5)
77%
Grappling share
20%

Briefing

Joaquin Buckley is the model’s side at 55% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.

Joaquin Buckley (power puncher, distance kicker, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC welterweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Buckley around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Buckley striking rating 1780 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Buckley lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 61%. Reach is 76" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Buckley's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Buckley's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Buckley enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Buckley — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Buckley's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
  2. One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Buckley enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
  • Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

Swing variables

    What moved it from 50/50

    • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Buckley +0.10

      Buckley striking rating 1780 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

    • Counter striker vs pressure boxingBuckley +0.06

      Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.

    • Age / athletic windowBuckley +0.05

      Buckley 32 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

    • Recency and opponent-adjusted formBuckley +0.04

      Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Buckley +0.22 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

    • Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.03

      Takedown threat Buckley 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.

    • Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.03

      Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

    Attribute radar

    Buckley · Rodrigues

    Side-by-side

    Buckley: power puncher · distance kicker · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

    BuckleyRodrigues
    Record21-716-6
    Age (fight night)3234
    Height5'10"6'2"
    Reach76"75"
    StanceSwitchOrthodox
    SLpM4.85.2
    SApM3.74.1
    Str. acc.44%51%
    Str. def.54%49%
    KD / 150.720.92
    TD avg0.61.6
    TD acc.36%38%
    TD def.64%61%
    Sub avg0.30.3
    Control / 152.0m1.8m
    Late-round diff0.06-0.08
    Layoff119d126d
    Datadeepdeep

    Buckley range mix

    • Distance
      82%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      6%
    • Head
      52%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      28%

    Rodrigues range mix

    • Distance
      72%
    • Clinch
      12%
    • Ground
      16%
    • Head
      64%
    • Body
      20%
    • Leg
      16%

    Method of victory

    • Buckley KO/TKO
      11%
    • Buckley SUB
      2%
    • Buckley DEC
      41%
    • Rodrigues KO/TKO
      10%
    • Rodrigues SUB
      4%
    • Rodrigues DEC
      32%
    How the model works