Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceBuckley 55%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Buckley: 39%–70%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 73%
- Expected time
- 13:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 77%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Joaquin Buckley is the model’s side at 55% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Joaquin Buckley (power puncher, distance kicker, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC welterweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Buckley around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Buckley striking rating 1780 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Buckley lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 61%. Reach is 76" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Buckley's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Buckley's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Buckley enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Buckley — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Buckley's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Buckley enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Buckley +0.10
Buckley striking rating 1780 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingBuckley +0.06
Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.
- Age / athletic windowBuckley +0.05
Buckley 32 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formBuckley +0.04
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Buckley +0.22 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.03
Takedown threat Buckley 0.29 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.03
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Buckley · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Buckley: power puncher · distance kicker · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Buckley | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-7 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 76" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 44% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.72 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 64% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.06 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 119d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Buckley range mix
- Distance82%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head52%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Buckley KO/TKO
Model
11.4%
Fair
+776
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Buckley submission
Model
2.5%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Buckley decision
Model
41.1%
Fair
+143
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.7%
Fair
+929
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2717
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
31.8%
Fair
+215
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 21% · submission 6% · decision 73%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Buckley 62% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.9%
Fair
-562
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.1%
Fair
+562
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
76.7%
Fair
-329
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
23.3%
Fair
+329
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 77%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
72.9%
Fair
-268
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
27.1%
Fair
+268
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Buckley 41% + Rodrigues 32%
- Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Buckley inside the distance
Model
13.9%
Fair
+620
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Buckley not inside the distance
Model
86.1%
Fair
-620
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
13.3%
Fair
+654
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
86.7%
Fair
-654
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 11% + SUB 2%
- Buckley 0.72 KD / 15 · 62% of wins by KO/TKO
- Buckley 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.1%
Fair
+562
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1120
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.8%
Fair
+2497
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 27% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.