Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 61%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Chaves: 24%–57%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- Grappling share
- 27%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 61% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Jeisla Chaves live if the fight is forced into pressure wrestler.
Jeisla Chaves (pressure wrestler, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC women's flyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 61% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Chaves striking rating 1406 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (73%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 27%. Chaves lands 3.9 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 2.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 66" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Chaves's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Chaves enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Chaves cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Chaves — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Chaves enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Chaves cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.72
Chaves striking rating 1406 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (73%).
- Grappling / controlChaves +0.15
Takedown threat Chaves 1.25 vs Rodrigues 0.82 per 15. Estimated grappling share 27%.
- Age / athletic windowChaves +0.10
Chaves 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseChaves +0.06
Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Chaves · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Chaves: pressure wrestler · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Chaves | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-2 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 5'5" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 66" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.38 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 44% | 38% |
| TD def. | 58% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 5.4m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 133d | 126d |
| Data | standard | deep |
Chaves range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Chaves KO/TKO
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1970
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Chaves submission
Model
8.1%
Fair
+1130
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Chaves decision
Model
26.1%
Fair
+283
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
12.9%
Fair
+676
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1780
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
42.7%
Fair
+134
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 18% · submission 13% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Chaves 38% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 73%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.7%
Fair
-478
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 27% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.3%
Fair
-275
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.7%
Fair
+275
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 27% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
68.8%
Fair
-221
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
31.2%
Fair
+221
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Chaves 26% + Rodrigues 43%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Chaves inside the distance
Model
13.0%
Fair
+672
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Chaves not inside the distance
Model
87.0%
Fair
-672
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
18.2%
Fair
+449
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
81.8%
Fair
-449
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 5% + SUB 8%
- Chaves 0.38 KD / 15 · 38% of wins by KO/TKO
- Chaves 0.8 sub attempts / 15 · 38% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.4%
Fair
+964
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2137
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.