Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceSilva 65%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Silva: 49%–78%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 22%
Briefing
Jean Silva is the model’s side at 65% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Jean Silva (pressure boxer, power puncher, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Silva around 65% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Silva +1.00 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Silva lands 5.6 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy with a 1.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 61%. Reach is 70" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Silva's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Silva enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Silva — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Silva enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formSilva +0.21
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Silva +1.00 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Silva +0.20
Silva striking rating 1825 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
- Age / athletic windowSilva +0.10
Silva 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlSilva +0.05
Takedown threat Silva 0.71 vs Rodrigues 0.74 per 15. Estimated grappling share 22%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilitySilva +0.03
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Silva · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Silva: pressure boxer · power puncher · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Silva | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 70" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 49% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 50% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 40% | 38% |
| TD def. | 70% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 1.6m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 77d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Silva range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch16%
- Ground14%
- Head66%
- Body20%
- Leg14%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Silva KO/TKO
Model
14.1%
Fair
+609
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Silva submission
Model
6.8%
Fair
+1364
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Silva decision
Model
44.0%
Fair
+127
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
6.4%
Fair
+1458
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
2.9%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
25.7%
Fair
+289
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 21% · submission 10% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Silva 65% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 78%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.2%
Fair
-495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
74.1%
Fair
-286
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
25.9%
Fair
+286
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
69.8%
Fair
-231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Silva 44% + Rodrigues 26%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Silva inside the distance
Model
20.9%
Fair
+378
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Silva not inside the distance
Model
79.1%
Fair
-378
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
9.3%
Fair
+976
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
90.7%
Fair
-976
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 14% + SUB 7%
- Silva 0.88 KD / 15 · 65% of wins by KO/TKO
- Silva 0.4 sub attempts / 15 · 18% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2209
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.