Jean Silva (pressure boxer, power puncher, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Silva around 65% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Silva +1.00 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Silva lands 5.6 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy with a 1.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 61%. Reach is 70" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Silva's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Rodrigues enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Silva enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.