Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 71%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Jenkins: 19%–43%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 12:54
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- Grappling share
- 22%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 71% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Jack Jenkins live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Jack Jenkins (volume kickboxer, muay thai) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 71% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Jenkins striking rating 1424 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Jenkins lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.3 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 61%. Reach is 70" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Jenkins's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jenkins's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Jenkins enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Jenkins's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Jenkins — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jenkins's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Rodrigues's entries slow.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Jenkins enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Jenkins's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.72
Jenkins striking rating 1424 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.09
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Jenkins -0.40 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Age / athletic windowJenkins +0.03
Jenkins 33 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.01
Takedown threat Jenkins 0.64 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 22%.
Attribute radar
Jenkins · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Jenkins: volume kickboxer · muay thai — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Jenkins | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 70" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 64% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.05 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 112d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Jenkins range mix
- Distance82%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg29%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Jenkins KO/TKO
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2194
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Jenkins submission
Model
2.6%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Jenkins decision
Model
22.2%
Fair
+350
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
16.2%
Fair
+519
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1627
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
48.9%
Fair
+105
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 21% · submission 8% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Jenkins 46% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 78%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.9%
Fair
-521
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.2%
Fair
-303
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.8%
Fair
+303
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 75%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
71.1%
Fair
-246
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
28.9%
Fair
+246
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Jenkins 22% + Rodrigues 49%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.9 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Jenkins inside the distance
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1333
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Jenkins not inside the distance
Model
93.0%
Fair
-1333
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
21.9%
Fair
+356
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
78.0%
Fair
-356
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 4% + SUB 3%
- Jenkins 0.40 KD / 15 · 46% of wins by KO/TKO
- Jenkins 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 15% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.7%
Fair
+1049
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2315
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.