Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 51%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Ziam: 35%–63%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 76%
- Expected time
- 13:18
- P(over 2.5)
- 80%
- Grappling share
- 22%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 51% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Farès Ziam live if the fight is forced into point fighter.
Farès Ziam (point fighter, distance kicker, defensive wrestler) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 51% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Ziam striking rating 1605 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Ziam lands 3.6 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.4 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 78% versus 61%. Reach is 75" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Ziam's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Ziam enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Ziam cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Ziam — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Ziam's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Ziam enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Ziam cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.31
Ziam striking rating 1605 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
- Grappling / controlZiam +0.11
Takedown threat Ziam 0.66 vs Rodrigues 0.69 per 15. Estimated grappling share 22%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formZiam +0.10
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Ziam +0.47 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowZiam +0.10
Ziam 29 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Ziam · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Ziam: point fighter · distance kicker · defensive wrestler — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Ziam | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 62% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.30 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 32% | 38% |
| TD def. | 78% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 1.6m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 98d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Ziam range mix
- Distance79%
- Clinch14%
- Ground7%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg32%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ziam KO/TKO
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1618
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ziam submission
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2103
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ziam decision
Model
38.5%
Fair
+160
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.4%
Fair
+958
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2310
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
37.5%
Fair
+166
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 15% · submission 9% · decision 76%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Ziam 33% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 78%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
86.7%
Fair
-652
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
13.3%
Fair
+652
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 24% · decision 76%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 87%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
79.5%
Fair
-388
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
20.5%
Fair
+388
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 24% · decision 76%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 80%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
76.0%
Fair
-317
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
24.0%
Fair
+317
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Ziam 39% + Rodrigues 38%
- Finish mass 24% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.3 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Ziam inside the distance
Model
10.4%
Fair
+865
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Ziam not inside the distance
Model
89.6%
Fair
-865
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
13.6%
Fair
+635
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
86.4%
Fair
-635
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 5%
- Ziam 0.30 KD / 15 · 33% of wins by KO/TKO
- Ziam 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 17% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
13.3%
Fair
+652
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.2%
Fair
+1289
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2790
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 24% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.