Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceAndrade 54%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Andrade: 37%–70%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 12:54
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- Grappling share
- 25%
Briefing
Fabrício Andrade is the model’s side at 54% because of age / athletic window, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Fabrício Andrade (pressure boxer, opportunistic, muay thai) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Andrade around 54% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is age / athletic window: Andrade 28 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 25%. Andrade lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 2.2 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 61%. Reach is 69" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Andrade's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Andrade enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Andrade — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Rodrigues's entries slow.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Andrade enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Age / athletic windowAndrade +0.09
Andrade 28 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.09
Andrade striking rating 1700 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (75%).
- Grappling / controlAndrade +0.08
Takedown threat Andrade 1.08 vs Rodrigues 0.74 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formAndrade +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Andrade +0.29 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityAndrade +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Andrade · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Andrade: pressure boxer · opportunistic · muay thai — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Andrade | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 28 | 34 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 69" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 70% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 105d | 126d |
| Data | standard | deep |
Andrade range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg30%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Andrade KO/TKO
Model
9.2%
Fair
+986
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade submission
Model
7.1%
Fair
+1312
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade decision
Model
37.6%
Fair
+166
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.0%
Fair
+1010
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2438
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
33.2%
Fair
+201
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 18% · submission 11% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Andrade 56% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 75%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.8%
Fair
-517
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.2%
Fair
+517
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.0%
Fair
-300
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
25.0%
Fair
+300
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 75%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
70.8%
Fair
-242
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
29.2%
Fair
+242
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Andrade 38% + Rodrigues 33%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.9 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Andrade inside the distance
Model
16.3%
Fair
+514
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade not inside the distance
Model
83.7%
Fair
-514
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
13.0%
Fair
+672
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
87.1%
Fair
-672
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 9% + SUB 7%
- Andrade 0.55 KD / 15 · 56% of wins by KO/TKO
- Andrade 0.5 sub attempts / 15 · 22% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.2%
Fair
+517
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1036
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2258
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.