Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 73%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Reed: 17%–40%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 73%
- Expected time
- 13:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 77%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 73% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Elise Reed live if the fight is forced into point fighter.
Elise Reed (point fighter, counter striker) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC women's strawweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 73% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Reed striking rating 1413 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Reed lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 0.5 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 52% versus 61%. Reach is 63" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Reed's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Reed's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Reed enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Reed — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Reed's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Reed enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.77
Reed striking rating 1413 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.08
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Reed -0.32 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.06
Takedown threat Reed 0.25 vs Rodrigues 0.85 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingReed +0.05
Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.
- Age / athletic windowReed +0.03
Reed 33 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessRodrigues −0.02
Reed 175 days out · Rodrigues 126 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
Attribute radar
Reed · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Reed: point fighter · counter striker — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Reed | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-5 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 5'3" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 63" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 61% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 52% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.10 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 175d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Reed range mix
- Distance79%
- Clinch14%
- Ground7%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Reed KO/TKO
Model
3.3%
Fair
+2940
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Reed submission
Model
1.2%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Reed decision
Model
22.2%
Fair
+351
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
16.5%
Fair
+506
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1627
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
51.0%
Fair
-104
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 20% · submission 7% · decision 73%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Reed 25% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
85.1%
Fair
-571
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
14.9%
Fair
+571
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
77.1%
Fair
-337
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
22.9%
Fair
+337
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 77%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
73.2%
Fair
-273
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
26.8%
Fair
+273
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Reed 22% + Rodrigues 51%
- Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Reed inside the distance
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2127
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Reed not inside the distance
Model
95.5%
Fair
-2127
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
22.3%
Fair
+348
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
77.7%
Fair
-348
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 3% + SUB 1%
- Reed 0.55 KD / 15 · 25% of wins by KO/TKO
- Reed 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
14.9%
Fair
+571
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.0%
Fair
+1150
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2464
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 27% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.