Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 53%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Gomes: 34%–61%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 74%
- Expected time
- 13:12
- P(over 2.5)
- 78%
- Grappling share
- 24%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 53% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Denise Gomes live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Denise Gomes (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC women's strawweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Gomes striking rating 1630 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Gomes lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 1.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 61%. Reach is 62" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Gomes's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Gomes enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Gomes — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Gomes enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.25
Gomes striking rating 1630 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
- Age / athletic windowGomes +0.09
Gomes 27 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formGomes +0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Gomes +0.33 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.01
Takedown threat Gomes 0.88 vs Rodrigues 0.80 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.
Attribute radar
Gomes · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Gomes: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Gomes | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 27 | 34 |
| Height | 5'2" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 62" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 60% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 70d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Gomes range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Gomes KO/TKO
Model
7.6%
Fair
+1211
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Gomes submission
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2079
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Gomes decision
Model
34.6%
Fair
+189
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
9.5%
Fair
+949
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2137
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
39.2%
Fair
+155
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 17% · submission 9% · decision 74%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Gomes 50% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
85.4%
Fair
-585
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
14.6%
Fair
+585
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 26% · decision 74%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
77.5%
Fair
-344
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
22.5%
Fair
+344
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 26% · decision 74%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 78%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
73.8%
Fair
-281
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
26.2%
Fair
+281
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Gomes 35% + Rodrigues 39%
- Finish mass 26% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.2 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Gomes inside the distance
Model
12.2%
Fair
+718
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Gomes not inside the distance
Model
87.8%
Fair
-718
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
14.0%
Fair
+614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
86.0%
Fair
-614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 8% + SUB 5%
- Gomes 0.55 KD / 15 · 50% of wins by KO/TKO
- Gomes 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 8% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
14.6%
Fair
+585
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.9%
Fair
+1166
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.7%
Fair
+2581
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 26% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.