Dan Hooker (volume kickboxer, distance kicker, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 51% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is age / athletic window: Hooker 36 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Hooker lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 61%. Reach is 75" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Hooker's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Hooker's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Hooker enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Hooker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.