Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 51%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Hooker: 36%–62%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 72%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 22%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 51% because of age / athletic window, with Dan Hooker live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Dan Hooker (volume kickboxer, distance kicker, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC lightweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 51% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is age / athletic window: Hooker 36 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Hooker lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 61%. Reach is 75" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Hooker's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Hooker's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Hooker enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Hooker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Hooker — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Hooker's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Hooker enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Hooker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Age / athletic windowRodrigues −0.05
Hooker 36 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formHooker +0.04
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Hooker +0.22 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Hooker +0.01
Hooker striking rating 1745 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (79%).
Attribute radar
Hooker · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Hooker: volume kickboxer · distance kicker · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Hooker | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-14 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 36 | 34 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 43% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.48 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 32% | 38% |
| TD def. | 68% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 1.1m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.16 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 140d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Hooker range mix
- Distance78%
- Clinch12%
- Ground10%
- Head50%
- Body18%
- Leg32%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Hooker KO/TKO
Model
7.6%
Fair
+1207
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Hooker submission
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2098
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Hooker decision
Model
36.9%
Fair
+171
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
11.7%
Fair
+754
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2327
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
35.0%
Fair
+185
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 19% · submission 9% · decision 72%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Hooker 46% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 79%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.5%
Fair
-545
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.5%
Fair
+545
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
76.0%
Fair
-317
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.0%
Fair
+317
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
72.0%
Fair
-257
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
28.0%
Fair
+257
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Hooker 37% + Rodrigues 35%
- Finish mass 28% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Hooker inside the distance
Model
12.2%
Fair
+720
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Hooker not inside the distance
Model
87.8%
Fair
-720
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
15.8%
Fair
+532
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
84.2%
Fair
-532
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 8% + SUB 5%
- Hooker 0.48 KD / 15 · 46% of wins by KO/TKO
- Hooker 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 17% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.5%
Fair
+545
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.5%
Fair
+1076
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2381
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 28% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.