Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceMoreno 56%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Moreno: 42%–69%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- Grappling share
- 24%
Briefing
Brandon Moreno is the model’s side at 56% because of grappling / control, with Gregory Rodrigues live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Brandon Moreno (volume kickboxer, scrambler, submission hunter) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC flyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Moreno around 56% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Moreno 0.92 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Moreno lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 1.8 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 61%. Reach is 70" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Moreno's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Moreno's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Moreno enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Moreno's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Moreno — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Moreno's length and volume only matter if Rodrigues cannot crash the pocket.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Moreno enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Moreno's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlMoreno +0.17
Takedown threat Moreno 0.92 vs Rodrigues 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.13
Moreno striking rating 1680 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsMoreno +0.07
Moreno generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formMoreno +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Moreno +0.25 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowMoreno +0.05
Moreno 32 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityMoreno +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Moreno · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Moreno: volume kickboxer · scrambler · submission hunter — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Moreno | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-8-2 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 70" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 58% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 41% | 38% |
| TD def. | 64% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 3.4m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.18 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 140d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Moreno range mix
- Distance82%
- Clinch14%
- Ground42%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Moreno KO/TKO
Model
5.1%
Fair
+1876
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Moreno submission
Model
12.8%
Fair
+678
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Moreno decision
Model
37.9%
Fair
+164
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
7.4%
Fair
+1257
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.7%
Fair
+2588
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
33.1%
Fair
+202
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 17% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Moreno 22% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.9%
Fair
-521
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.2%
Fair
-303
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
24.8%
Fair
+303
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 75%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
71.0%
Fair
-245
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
29.0%
Fair
+245
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Moreno 38% + Rodrigues 33%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Moreno inside the distance
Model
17.9%
Fair
+458
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Moreno not inside the distance
Model
82.1%
Fair
-458
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
11.1%
Fair
+802
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
88.9%
Fair
-802
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 5% + SUB 13%
- Moreno 0.25 KD / 15 · 22% of wins by KO/TKO
- Moreno 0.8 sub attempts / 15 · 48% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.7%
Fair
+1049
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2281
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.