Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 74%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Qileng: 15%–42%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- Grappling share
- 23%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 74% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Aori Qileng live if the fight is forced into brawler.
Aori Qileng (brawler, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 74% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Qileng striking rating 1355 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Qileng lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 1.5 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 61%. Reach is 67" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Qileng's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Qileng enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Qileng's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Qileng — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Qileng enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Qileng's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.87
Qileng striking rating 1355 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
- Power vs durabilityRodrigues −0.11
Qileng has been hurt at a rate that matters against Rodrigues's power.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.07
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formQileng +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Qileng +0.25 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowQileng +0.03
Qileng 33 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlRodrigues −0.02
Takedown threat Qileng 0.74 vs Rodrigues 0.82 per 15. Estimated grappling share 23%.
Attribute radar
Qileng · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Qileng: brawler · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Qileng | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-13 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 67" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 44% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 49% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.30 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 38% |
| TD def. | 58% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | -0.06 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 84d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Qileng range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Qileng KO/TKO
Model
3.0%
Fair
+3179
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Qileng submission
Model
3.1%
Fair
+3126
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Qileng decision
Model
20.0%
Fair
+401
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
19.0%
Fair
+427
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
6.1%
Fair
+1531
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
48.8%
Fair
+105
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 22% · submission 9% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Qileng 33% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.7%
Fair
-478
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.2%
Fair
-273
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
26.8%
Fair
+273
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
68.8%
Fair
-220
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
31.2%
Fair
+220
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Qileng 20% + Rodrigues 49%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Qileng inside the distance
Model
6.2%
Fair
+1526
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Qileng not inside the distance
Model
93.8%
Fair
-1526
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
25.1%
Fair
+299
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
74.9%
Fair
-299
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 3% + SUB 3%
- Qileng 0.30 KD / 15 · 33% of wins by KO/TKO
- Qileng 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 25% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.5%
Fair
+953
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2152
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.