Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
medium confidenceRodrigues 64%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Perez: 24%–51%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 12:54
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- Grappling share
- 27%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 64% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Alex Perez live if the fight is forced into pressure wrestler.
Alex Perez (pressure wrestler, pressure boxer) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC flyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 64% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Perez striking rating 1431 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (73%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 27%. Perez lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 2.6 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 61%. Reach is 67" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Perez's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Perez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Perez cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Perez — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Perez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Perez cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.67
Perez striking rating 1431 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (73%).
- Grappling / controlPerez +0.18
Takedown threat Perez 1.36 vs Rodrigues 0.74 per 15. Estimated grappling share 27%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRodrigues −0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Perez -0.30 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defensePerez +0.06
Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Perez · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Perez: pressure wrestler · pressure boxer — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Perez | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-10 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 5'6" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 67" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.30 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 44% | 38% |
| TD def. | 70% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 5.4m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.04 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 98d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Perez range mix
- Distance59%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Perez KO/TKO
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2477
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Perez submission
Model
6.2%
Fair
+1510
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Perez decision
Model
26.4%
Fair
+279
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
13.6%
Fair
+636
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.6%
Fair
+1695
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
44.4%
Fair
+125
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 17% · submission 12% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Perez 31% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 73%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.8%
Fair
-517
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.2%
Fair
+517
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 27% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
75.0%
Fair
-300
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
25.0%
Fair
+300
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 27% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 75%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
70.8%
Fair
-242
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
29.3%
Fair
+242
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Perez 26% + Rodrigues 44%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.9 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Perez inside the distance
Model
10.1%
Fair
+891
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Perez not inside the distance
Model
89.9%
Fair
-891
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
19.2%
Fair
+422
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
80.8%
Fair
-422
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 4% + SUB 6%
- Perez 0.30 KD / 15 · 31% of wins by KO/TKO
- Perez 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 31% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.2%
Fair
+517
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1036
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2253
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.