Hypothetical · three rounds · current snapshots
Independent projection
low confidenceRodrigues 58%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Takenaka: 23%–64%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 68%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- Grappling share
- 28%
Briefing
Gregory Rodrigues is the model’s side at 58% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Daichi Takenaka live if the fight is forced into pressure wrestler.
Daichi Takenaka (pressure wrestler, submission hunter) against Gregory Rodrigues (power puncher, pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC flyweight matchup in —. The independent model puts Rodrigues around 58% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Takenaka striking rating 1415 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (72%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 28%. Takenaka lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 3.0 takedown average; Rodrigues is at 5.2 / 51% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 72% versus 61%. Reach is 68" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Takenaka's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Rodrigues's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Takenaka enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Takenaka cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Takenaka — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Takenaka enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Takenaka cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.69
Takenaka striking rating 1415 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (72%).
- Grappling / controlTakenaka +0.21
Takedown threat Takenaka 1.55 vs Rodrigues 0.73 per 15. Estimated grappling share 28%.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsTakenaka +0.07
Takenaka generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseTakenaka +0.06
Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formTakenaka +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Takenaka +0.28 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRodrigues −0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Takenaka · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Takenaka: pressure wrestler · submission hunter — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Takenaka | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 68" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 43% | 38% |
| TD def. | 72% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 4.4m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 70d | 126d |
| Data | thin | deep |
Takenaka range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Takenaka KO/TKO
Model
3.8%
Fair
+2511
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka submission
Model
10.5%
Fair
+854
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka decision
Model
27.6%
Fair
+262
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues KO/TKO
Model
12.0%
Fair
+731
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues submission
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1831
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues decision
Model
40.8%
Fair
+145
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 16% · submission 16% · decision 68%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Takenaka 25% · Rodrigues 69%
- Standing share 72%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.5%
Fair
-471
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.5%
Fair
+471
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 2.5 rounds
Model
73.0%
Fair
-270
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 2.5 rounds
Model
27.0%
Fair
+270
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)
Fight goes the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
Model
68.5%
Fair
-217
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
Model
31.5%
Fair
+217
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Takenaka 28% + Rodrigues 41%
- Finish mass 32% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Takenaka inside the distance
Model
14.3%
Fair
+599
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka not inside the distance
Model
85.7%
Fair
-599
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues inside the distance
Model
17.2%
Fair
+481
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Rodrigues not inside the distance
Model
82.8%
Fair
-481
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 4% + SUB 10%
- Takenaka 0.25 KD / 15 · 25% of wins by KO/TKO
- Takenaka 1.0 sub attempts / 15 · 44% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.5%
Fair
+471
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.5%
Fair
+953
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2108
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 32% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.